Florida Covid Statistics: What Is Really Happening, June 23, 2022?

Nature: What Omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 Variants Mean for the Pandemic: The Lineages’ Rise Seems to Stem from Their Ability to Infect People Who Were Immune to Earlier Forms of Omicron and Other Variants

Those 50+ and immunocompromised people 12+ are eligible for a second Covid booster shot. The FDA has also approved boosters for children 5–11 years old. On May 24^th, the CDC added approval for a fifth shot for people 12+ with moderate to severe immunocompromisation.

With all Florida counties having high transmission, I strongly recommend getting a booster now, if you are eligible for one. Medicare will cover the cost for those with that insurance. Each household can now order up to three sets of four Covid tests at Covid.gov.

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots

CDC: Community Transmission in Florida

I have also published an omicron variant post, archived delta variant information, and archived general Covid-19 information. However, the most recent omicron information is here.

On June 22^nd, the CDC deemed much of Florida as either a sustained or newer hotspot:

CDC COVID-19 Community Profile Report

Anecdotally, the omicron BA.2 subvariant appears to be infecting people who were not exposed to the earlier omicron variants.

Evidence from South Africa indicates that people who were previously infected with omicron BA.1 are susceptible to reinfection from the new subvariants omicron BA.4 and omicron BA.5. People who were vaccinated were 5 times less likely to experience reinfection than unvaccinated individuals.

These newer strains replicate in people’s nasal passages, tending to result in less severe illness. The early omicron variants triggered long Covid in 4% of people, compared to 10% of those infected with the delta variant. Serious cases are rare but do occur, especially in unvaccinated individuals.

NEJM: Neutralization Escape by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5

MedPage: Omicron BA.4 and BA.5: Starting from Scratch Yet Again—Here’s What We Know and What We Still Need to Find Out

Lancet: Risk of Long COVID Associated with Delta versus Omicron Variants of SARS-CoV-2

Laboratory evidence on serum samples corroborates the South African evidence of increased susceptibility to reinfection with BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 for people who had breakthrough infections due to the omicron BA.1 variant.

Three doses of the AstraZeneca (A) or Pfizer (B) vaccines are also significantly less protective when compared to earlier omicron subvariants.

These charts are on logarithmic scales, so the declines are larger than they appear until you see the lower dilution number required to neutralize the viruses:

MedR_xiv: Omicron Sub-Lineages BA.4/BA.5 Escape BA.1 Infection-Elicited Neutralizing Immunity

Nature: BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 Escape Antibodies Elicited by Omicron Infection

On June 18, 2022, 91% of sequenced samples in the US and 92% in the region which includes Florida were BA.2.12.1, BA.4, or BA.5. That means that only 8% of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which is spreading in the state can be prevented by vaccination or prior infection with omicron BA.1:

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Limits COVID Data to Every 2 Weeks, State Says Via Meme: Department of Health Officials Announced the Change Via Twitter, Using Vince McMahon and Cat Memes

Until June 2021, Florida reported Covid statistics every day with an online database. Weeks before the delta variant took hold in the state with devastating effects, the Department of Health switched to a weekly pdf while withholding data previously available to the public.

Now Florida is halving the frequency of reports to the public to every two weeks. The state is directing people to the CDC, where there is an information lag.

Palm Beach Post: Florida to Update COVID-19 Data Less Frequently than All Other States

I heartily disagree with this official announcement made from the Florida Department of Health retweeting their spokesman’s personal Twitter account on March 11^th. We need more information, not less.

Unfortunately, the tactic works: even Floridians tend to express shock when I tell them about the most recent statistics:

May 19, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Dr. Jason Salemi from the University of South Florida was compiling some data from the CDC during weeks when the state did not issue an official report.

Even before his hard drive crashed after April 24^th, he did not have direct access to the Florida data. His rebuilt site is omitting data derived from the Florida Department of Health reports:

Jan 6, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

During the first omicron wave, Florida did not increase the frequency of reporting, leaving many residents unaware of the amount of viral transmission occurring until Christmas Eve.

In the two weeks before December 24^th, the number of confirmed Covid cases increased 850%:

Public health experts view a positivity rate of 5% or below sufficient to capture all Covid cases. During that same period ending on December 23^rd, the positivity rate rose from 2.6% to 13.9%. So, the actual number of cases was likely 180% higher than what the state reported:

JHU: COVID-19 Testing: Understanding the “Percent Positive”

Beginning in June 2021, Florida removed all archived Covid data from their web site.

Until March 17^th, they replaced the statistics from the previous week with a new report. Now that occurs every two weeks.

That makes it much more difficult—even for those who have saved the old data—to see the actual numbers of cases and deaths. No hospitalization information is included.

On the Florida Department of Health web site, you can locate influenza records from 2001 but not Covid data from earlier than June 9, 2022.

T B T : W h y D o e s n ‘t F l o r i d a T r u s t I t s R e s i d e n t s with Basic COVID Information?

Florida Influenza Surveillance Reports 2001–2022

These bullet points are a summary of the data in the rest of this post:

Florida Covid Deaths:

As of 6-23-22, the state has reported 75,574 Covid deaths among permanent FL residents to the CDC.
On 6-6-22, a report from the Florida Auditor General revealed the state omitted 3,000 Covid deaths from official reporting during March–October 2020. They are still not reflected in the Cumulative Deaths.
On June 4, 2021, the state removed 744 deaths among non-permanent residents and stopped reporting them.
There were 478 deaths among permanent residents reported during June 17–23. That is 96% higher than in the previous week and worst or 2^nd worst in the nation per capita.
The state is claiming only 11% of them as “New Deaths” (54).
During June 2021–May 2022, Florida reported only 7,220 of the 39,216 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (18%).
382 permanent Florida residents died from Covid in May 2022.
Miami-Dade reported 59 deaths in the last week (up 127%); Palm Beach, 53 (up 212%); Broward, 32 (up 23%); and Hillsborough, 23 (up 77%).
FL has 9.1% of US deaths when vaccinations were available to all over 15, for 6.6% of the US population.
Since July 1, 2021, FL has the third worst death rate in the US.
Over half of Florida’s Covid deaths have occurred since everyone over 15 became eligible for vaccination.
I cannot determine the percentage of deaths which occurred among senior citizens.
Permanent Florida residents aged 80+ rank 9^th best among the 50 states and Washington DC, with 25% fewer deaths than the national average for that age group.
Florida has the 5^thworst death rate in the nation for ages 1–4, with 11 deaths. The state has 31% more deaths in that age group than expected based upon the national average.
16 children under 1 year old have died, some of whom were likely over 6 months old.
Children aged 5–14 are in the worst ranking demographic at 47 of 51. There have been 38% more Covid deaths in that age group than the national average.
CA has 70% more people than Florida, yet almost the same number of excess deaths.
Among the 6 largest states, the Florida death rate is below only Pennsylvania’s.
FL does not report Covid deaths stratified by vaccination status.

FL Covid Vaccinations:

As of June 16^th, Florida claimed a 74% vaccination rate. This includes anyone with at least one shot, over 600,000 snowbirds, and “vaccine tourists.” It excludes children under 5.
66% of people in Florida had at least completed a vaccine series by June 23^rd.
Long Covid occurs significantly less often in vaccinated people. Vaccination after infection can also reduce or eliminate Long Covid symptoms.
At most, 27% had booster shots by June 23^rd, an important precaution against illness and transmission of the omicron variants.
During May 2022, boosters prevented 63% of omicron hospitalizations among people aged 18–49; 74% for ages 50–64; and 74% for senior citizens. Compared to April, hospitalizations in May doubled for every age and vaccination status.
Compared to people with boosters during April 2022, unvaccinated people aged 30–49 were 6 times more likely to die; it was 4 times for ages 50–64; 8 times for ages 65–79 and 4 times for people over 80.
During the initial omicron wave in Israel, a second booster prevented 64% of hospitalizations and 72% of Covid deaths among nursing home residents compared to those who received only a first booster.
Mixing booster vaccine types will give you the best protection: they stimulate different parts of your immune system. If you had 2 or 3 Moderna, I recommend getting a Pfizer and vice versa.
Medicare will cover 100% of the cost of a second booster shot.
The state does not report cases or deaths by vaccination status.
On 1-14-22, the governor refused to enforce the federal mandate for healthcare workers upheld by the Supreme Court a day earlier.
On 1-19-22, the state put Orange County’s epidemiologist on leave for chiding his employees’ 40% vaccination rate.
On 1-15-22 the governor said many nurses avoid vaccination due to “trying to have families.” Numerous studies confirm vaccination does not cause infertility.
On 3-7-22, a discussion panel moderated by Governor DeSantis recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to the risk of adolescent males developing myocarditis. Florida is the only state to make such a declaration.
On 5-27-22, the Special Olympics dropped their vaccine mandate for a national tournament after the state threatened to fine them $27,500,000.
The risk of cardiac inflammation due to Covid is 540% higher for boys aged 5–11. No girls developed symptoms after vaccination.
Among 400 children hospitalized during the omicron wave, 1 in 3 had no preexisting conditions, 1 in 5 required care in the ICU, and 9 in 10 were unvaccinated.
During May 2022, unvaccinated children aged 5–11 were 70% more likely to need hospital admission than their vaccinated peers. Unvaccinated teens aged 12–17 were 31% more likely. Hospitalization rates doubled for ages 5–11 and tripled for teens since April.
As of 5-19-22, only 24% of those Floridians aged 5–11 had at least one shot; 59% of adolescents did.
On 6-17-22, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for children as young as 6 months old. The CDC recommended them a day later.
The FL Dept of Heath website claims the FDA recommends vaccination for those 12+, not 6 months+.
Florida was the only state which failed to preorder doses for the youngest children, a move Governor DeSantis and the Department of Health spokesman said was deliberate.
Despite claiming health care providers could order doses directly, they were unable to do so for several days.
Within an hour of receiving a demand for an explanation from a bipartisan Congressional committee, the state began enabling healthcare providers to order the vaccines.
I recommend using the Vaccines.gov site to locate a participating pharmacy.
Publix has announced they will not vaccinate children under 5, although they were the first in the state to receive adult dosages.
For those <6 months, having a mother who received 2 doses while pregnant reduced hospitalizations by 38% during omicron and 80% during delta. Vaccine efficacy doubled when given after 20 weeks.

Florida Covid Cases:

With the rise in at-home testing since the omicron wave began, it is important to know that official confirmed cases are likely to be significantly undercounted.
The state reported 73,796 new confirmed cases among permanent Florida residents, a 1% decrease since last week.
There have been 6,419,459 confirmed Covid cases in Florida among permanent residents.
On 6-6-22, a report from the Florida Auditor General revealed that 60% of people who tested positive for Covid during March–October 2020 were never notified of their results. That affected at least 183,000 infected individuals.
On June 4, 2021, the state removed all data from anyone who is not a permanent resident and stopped reporting it. This deleted 43,535 cases.
On 6-23-22, Florida’s state rank for confirmed cases was the 2^nd worst in the US.
The most recent CDC data shows 100% of Florida counties have high transmission rates.
Orange County cases fell 7% to 4,351. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough each fell 1% to 16,995 and 4,743.
We cannot tell how many children tested positive due to no data from the state.
During the 2021–2022 school year, the Hillsborough County School District reported 29,000 cases among students and personnel.
Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings.
Parents decide about quarantining after a close contact at school.
On 1-31-22, FL shifted its focus to “high congregate settings,” not schools and day cares.
During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.
On 1-31-22, FL students absent due to Covid exposure are truant per Orange County.

Florida Covid Testing and Prevention:

A report released by the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis in June 2022 explains Florida’s approach to the pandemic: get as many people infected as quickly as possible to reach herd immunity.
One Trump Administration official wrote, “Infants, kids, teens, young adults, middle aged with no conditions, etc. have zero to little risk…so we use them to develop herd…we want them infected…and recovered…with antibodies.”
Scott Atlas, the chief architect, advised the DeSantis Administration before joining the federal government.
Dr. Joseph Ladapo also promoted this “low testing/no masks/no lockdown” strategy to the White House before becoming the state’s surgeon general.
Due to at-home testing, the number of cases is likely to be under-reported.
The CDC advises notifying your doctor of positive at-home tests.
Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate <5% for 2 weeks before reopening.
Florida crossed the 5% threshold during April 9–21, 2022.
CDC data using information from the state showed the positivity rate ranged from 21.15% to 21.95%, with an average of 21.57% (a 5% rise).
That means there were about 318,000 cases in Florida during June 17–23, 2022, a 4% increase.
All of Florida’s 67 counties are above the 5% threshold; 3/4 are above 20%.
Of the 50 with increased positivity, 27 were larger than 2 full percentage points.
Orange County, where Disney is located, reported that 25.54% of tests were positive.
On 12-30-21, FL’s Agriculture Secretary revealed 1,000,000 expired antigen tests.
On 1-4-22, FL’s Surgeon General decried “testing psychology” to identify all cases.
On 1-8-22, FL’s web site told those not at high risk of severe cases to avoid testing.
On 1-9-22, the governor announced 1,000,000 tests for long-term care and nursing homes
On 2-7-22, the state reprimanded two companies which failed to report 230,000 test results from December and January until that week.
On 3-2-22 Governor DeSantis chided a group of teens in a county with a high alert level and told them to remove their face masks. He then used that episode to raise campaign funds. Under those conditions, the CDC recommends that everyone wear masks indoors.
On 3-31-22, a UF faculty committee revealed discrepancies in the surgeon general’s hiring as a tenured professor.

Florida Covid Treatment:

Omicron mutations render ineffective almost all monoclonal antibodies previously in use.
100% of US cases are due to those viral strains.
For the week ending January 8^th, 97% of sequenced cases in the region which includes Florida were omicron.
Sotrovimab worked against the omicron BA.1 variant at a dosage 3x more than for delta. It is 27 times less effective for omicron BA.2.
During the first week of January, Florida used 140 of its 4,400 Sotrovimab doses and 2,700 of Regeneron.
On 1-18-22, FL opened more infusion centers to distribute 15,000 doses of Regeneron.
The FDA revised its EUA for Regeneron on 1-24-22, prohibiting its use against omicron.
DeSantis objected to no shipments; all FL antibody infusion centers closed on 1-25-22.
During April 3–9, 2022, the percentage of BA.2 increased from 80% to 91% in the region which includes Florida (71.7% BA.2 and 19.3% of the newer BA.2.12.1).
On 4-5-22, the FDA revoked the Emergency Use Authorization for Sotrovimab nationwide due to the predominance of BA.2 in every state.
On 6-18-22, the percentage of BA.2 subvariants in the region which includes Florida fell to 65%, with BA.4 rising to 9% BA.5 climbing rapidly to 25%. BA.1 has disappeared.
A monoclonal antibody called bebtelovimab is effective against BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4. It began shipping to Florida during February 14–20.
We do not yet have information about bebtelovimab’s efficacy against BA.5
Here is the most recent weekly federal allocation of 11,892 Covid-specific treatments to Florida: 3,260 post-exposure Bebtelovimab (for all omicron types); 6,250 of the oral Paxlovid; 2,112 of the less-effective oral Molnupiravir.
In total, there are enough highly effective treatments for 9,780 Covid patients being delivered to the state.
By June 19^th, Florida patients had used 42% of the state’s cumulative Paxlovid deliveries; 8% of the Legevrio (Molnupir); 31% of the Bebtelovimab; and 29% of the Evusheld.
On 1-8-21, the FDA issued an Evusheld EUA for those with severe immunosuppression.
On 2-25-22, the dosage doubled due to BA.2. Prior recipients need an additional shot.
Evusheld is ineffective against omicron BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5, which account for 92% of cases in Florida’s region.
People with certain cancers or organ transplants receive the highest priority.
DeSantis announced it on 12-17-21, when Covid was raging through Miami-Dade County.
First shipments only to a small private fee-based clinic in Broward County on 12-24-21.
People flew from out of state to receive it at the iCare Clinic.
The large transplant hospital in Miami was to receive it four weeks later.
During Jan 24–30, 2022 the federal government sent 32,000 outpatient treatments.
On 5-31-22, Florida received a monthly allocation of 12,312 doses of pre-exposure Evusheld for severely immunocompromised people.

Florida Covid Hospitalizations:

You won’t find any hospitalization info on Florida’s Weekly Reports since 6-24-21.
Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Dept of Health and Human Services.
For August 1, 2020–June 23, 2022, Florida has had 436,809 new hospital admissions for Covid patients. This represents 9.0% of all Covid admissions for 6.6% of the US population.
During June 17–23, 2022, there was an average of 599 admissions per day, a total of 4,195. That was an increase of 4%.
On June 16^th, there were 2.79 new admissions/100,000 Floridians; 2.66 the week before.
Hospitalization admissions for most adult age groups rose. They ranged from -2% (ages 70+) to 13% (18–29).
Pediatric admissions decreased 8% compared to a week earlier. 157 children were admitted to FL hospitals this week.
Compared to delta, omicron admissions are higher for younger than 30 and older than 69.
On June 23^rd, Florida was the worst in the nation for adult Covid admissions, 2^nd for adult hospitalizations; 2^nd for adult ICU patients, 4^th for pediatric admissions; and 11^th for pediatric hospitalizations.
On June 26, 2022, 3,271 adult Covid patients were hospitalized, an increase of 5% in one week.
There were 630 adult admissions per day, 10% higher. Florida’s rate of adult admissions has been the worst in the US for the third week in a row.
10% of adults hospitalized with Covid needed ICU care, 1 patient less than a week earlier.
Pediatric Covid hospitalizations are 6% lower on June 26^th than a week earlier, with 76 children in the hospital. Florida ranks 10^th worst in that category.
There were 51 pediatric admissions on that day, the same as a week earlier. Florida’s pediatric admissions rank remained 3^rd worst in the US.
Orange County—where Disney is located—had 204 new hospital admissions in the last 7 days (14% fewer). Miami-Dade had 683 (8% rise); Broward had 491 (8% increase); and Hillsborough had 334 (2% fewer):
Largest increases were in inland central (26%) and northeastern counties (31%).
On 6-24-22, 78% of hospital beds in Florida were full; 5.5% used by Covid patients.
Covid patients accounted for 3,618 hospital beds, 3% more patients than a week earlier.
5.5% of ICU beds were used by 325 Covid patients, down 10%.
Overall, 74% of ICU beds are occupied in the state, the same as a week ago.
9% of hospitalized Covid patients were in the ICU.
1/3 are admitted for Covid diagnosis; 1/3 for Covid worsening an underlying condition; and one-third for reasons unrelated to their viral infection.

Until January 1, 2022, Florida was the only state in the US which was releasing statistics on a weekly basis. Several states switched to that schedule when Florida moved to reporting every two weeks.

Information available in Florida’s reports is far more limited than what the state provided before June 2021.

On October 18^th, I followed the Dept of Health’s recommendation to contact their COVID Data Analytics section, then went outside. When I returned, I had to do a major recovery process following an unauthorized attempt to access my hard drive.

I still have not received a response from the FL COVID Data Analytics group. Even the main site for the Florida Dept of Health appears on an unsecure connection: www.floridahealth.gov.

After several weeks of my computer downloading the official Florida Covid report for the first time since October 2021, it is once again refusing to open the file, citing a security risk. Dr. Salemi has resumed posting a link to the report:

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

The Hill: University of Florida Initiates Investigation into Alleged Destruction of COVID-19 Research Data

Faculty at the University of Florida charge that they have felt external pressure from the highest levels of state government to delete data related to their Covid research.

They also encountered “barriers to accessing and analyzing” data and “barriers to publication of scientific research which inhibited the ability of faculty to contribute scientific findings during a world-wide pandemic.”

On January 21, 2022, a federal judge sided with the plaintiffs in a 74-page ruling.

He asserted the University of Florida was “willing to suffer threats to its accreditation, congressional inquiries, unrelenting bad press, an all-but-certain hit to its rankings, and the substantial monetary cost of hiring an experienced D.C. firm to defend its policy. The only thing UF will not do, it seems, is amend its policy to make clear that it will never consider viewpoint in denying a request to testify.” As in The Emperor’s New Clothes, the emperor’s lords, “fearing the loss of their jobs and the Emperor’s good grace, enabled the charade by praising the Emperor’s fine suit.”

Tampa Bay Times: Federal Judge Orders Injunction to UF’s Conflict of Interest Policy

On March 31, 2022, a University of Florida faculty committee released a report charging that the university violated its own practices when hiring Joseph Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general to a tenured position.

Required faculty input regarding his application was due on September 17, 2021. However, Dr. Ladapo was informed he had the appointment on September 16^th.

After receiving the letter with an October 1,2021 start date, Dr. Ladapo changed it to September 20^th, just prior to the news conference where the governor announced him as our new surgeon general:

In response to a reporter’s questions, Jeremy Redfern, the Florida Department of Health spokesman, sent an email stating, “The time of those at the University of Florida writing 100-page reports regarding hiring practices would be better spent working on important issues like research and curing cancer.”

Tampa Bay Times: Joseph Ladapo Hiring Violated UF Procedures, Faculty Report Says: Some Faculty Felt Ladapo, Florida’s Surgeon General, Was the Subject of “Preferential Treatment on the Basis of His Political Opinions”

Here is some of the data from June 17–23, 2022 which the state submitted to the CDC on June 23^rd.

Cumulative numbers are derived from adding the new CDC information to the June 16^th Florida Department of Health report.

The corrected vaccination rate is from the CDC. Positivity data reflects the average for the week as reported to the CDC:

New cases = 73,796; Cumulative cases = 6,419,459
Positivity rate = 21.57%
New deaths = 54; Cumulative deaths = 75,574
Vaccination rate = 67.6%
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots: 8,516,954 (59%)
Total booster doses: 6,000,973 (41%)

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

CDC: Florida Daily Covid Testing

This data from June 10–16, 2022, is the only Covid report available from the Florida Department of Health (DoH). Whenever the state adds a new report, it removes the previous one:

New cases = 74,323; Cumulative cases = 6,345,663
Positivity rate = 17.2%
New deaths = 22; Cumulative deaths = 75,096
Vaccination rate = 74%
Vaccination rate ages 5–11 = 24%
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 8,005,006
Total booster doses: 5,219,043

CDC: COVID-19 Community Levels

On February 25, 2022, the CDC updated their masking guidelines based heavily upon Covid hospital admissions and utilization and, to a lesser extent, upon the number of new cases in a county.

It does not reflect the level of transmission.

They range from low (green) through medium (yellow) to high risk (orange). Rural areas without hospital services may look better than they are. You can click on the hyperlink below this for more specific information and the interactive map.

This is the situation in Florida as of June 23, 2022. Thirty-eight counties are at the highest level and 24 are at the medium level. Only 5 are green.

One week earlier, 44 counties—representing 92% of the population—were at the highest level:

In areas of high alert, the CDC advises everyone to wear a high-quality tight-fitting mask indoors.

Please note that relaxed masking guidelines in safer areas do not apply to severely immunocompromised people.

Tampa Bay Times: 9 in 10 Floridians at “High” Risk of COVID as Hospitalizations Rise

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

In contrast, here is the map for the same date based upon the level of Community Transmission:

CDC: Community Transmission in US

On March 2, 2022, Governor DeSantis visited Hillsborough County. As he approached a group of masked high school students, he said, “You do not have to wear those masks. I mean, please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything and we’ve gotta stop with this COVID theater. So, if you want to wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”

He then used that outburst to raise campaign funds.

WFLA: ‘This Is Ridiculous’: DeSantis Scolds Students for Wearing Face Masks During USF Visit

The Hill: DeSantis Fundraises off Video of Him Chiding Students for Wearing Masks

Hillsborough County had a high alert level for Covid before and after that date:

Feb 25, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Florida Covid Vaccinations:

Compare the FDA’s June 17, 2022, Emergency Use Authorization for eligibility in children as young as 6 months old to what Florida says it is on June 25^th:

FDA: FDA Authorizes Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use in Children 5 through 11 Years of Age

Florida Covid Response: Who Is Eligible for a Covid-19 Vaccine

As expected, on June 18^th, the CDC issued a statement recommending vaccination for all children at least 6 months old.

The FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines on June 17^th. They also expanded eligibility for the Moderna vaccine to children aged 5–17 years old:

CDC: CDC Recommends COVID-19 Vaccines for Young Children

FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccines for Children Down to 6 Months of Age

Since the clinical trials occurred while omicron was prevalent, it is not surprising that both vaccines showed lower efficacy in preventing infection.

Two doses of Moderna were more effective (51% in 6 months–under 2 years; 37% in 2–4 years) than two shots of the Pfizer vaccine, which failed to produce a sufficient immune response. That is why a full series of Pfizer consists of three shots (80% effective).

Both types were well-tolerated, with side effects comparable to other childhood vaccines.

Ars Technica: Why Moderna’s FDA-Authorized COVID Shot for Under 5s Has the Edge Over Pfizer’s

MedPage: Pfizer or Moderna: Which COVID Vaccine Is the Best Bet for Your Toddler?

Currently, Florida has the 5^thworst death rate in the nation for ages 1–4 (11 deaths). The state has 31% more deaths in that age group than expected based upon the national average.

Sixteen Floridians under 1 year old have died, some of whom may have fallen within the new eligibility criteria. By June 2, 2022, 442 American children under the age of 5 had died due to Covid:

Salemi USF: Covid Deaths by State

CDC: Provisional COVID-19 Deaths: Focus on Ages 0–18 Years

During August 1, 2020–June 23, 2022, there have been 13,605 pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed Covid in Florida, with 157 of those in the last week:

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

During June 6–17, 2022, Florida was the 2^nd worst in the US for pediatric admissions. The state has since improved to 4^th:

Salemi USF: Covid Hospitalizations

In anticipation of FDA approval, the federal government created a June 13, 2022, deadline for states to preorder the smaller doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines required for children aged 6 months–4 years old.

Florida was the only state to miss that deadline.

While federal pharmacies like Costco, Publix, Sam’s Club, Walgreens and Winn-Dixie can order doses directly from the US government, most of them do not administer any vaccinations to children under 3 years old.

CVS Minute Clinics are an exception, accepting children at least 18 months old.

Despite being the first pharmacies to receive the adult vaccines in Florida, Publix has announced they will not provide them for children under 5.

I recommend using the Vaccines.gov website to locate a participating pharmacy.

During a press conference, Governor DeSantis asserted, “I would say we are affirmatively against the COVID vaccine for young kids. These are the people who have zero risk of getting anything.”

The spokesman for the Florida Department of Health stated, “The Florida Department of Health [DoH]… has made it clear to the federal government that states do not need to be involved in the convoluted vaccine distribution process, especially when the federal government has a track record of developing inconsistent and unsustainable COVID-19 policies. It is also no surprise we chose not to participate in distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine when the Department does not recommend it for all children.”

As with all other childhood vaccines, Florida hospitals were able to preorder the Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5–11 in November 2021 from the state program Florida SHOTS.

However, the state’s website did not provide that option for the younger cohort for several days after receiving widespread attention in the national press.

The president of the FL chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics stated that in her contacts with the FL DoH on this issue, the agency never claimed the situation would change after the FDA authorized the vaccines.

Within an hour of the bipartisan House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus demanding an explanation, pediatric healthcare providers were able to place orders directly beginning on June 17, 2022.

Participants in the Florida SHOTS program must order at least 100 doses. Unlike for all other age groups, the state will not store the lower dosage vaccines.

As a result, small independent pediatric clinics may find it harder to deliver these shots, making it even more difficult for parents with children under 18 months old. A ten-dose vial must be thrown after away 12 hours.

According to a federal official, “The state of Florida intentionally missed multiple deadlines to order vaccines to protect its youngest kids. Now despite repeated efforts to reach out and engage officials in the state of Florida, elected officials deliberately chose to delay taking action to deny Florida parents the choice of whether to vaccinate their children or not.”

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Infants, Toddlers Face COVID Vaccine Delay, White House Says

Fox: Florida Pharmacies Will Have COVID Vaccines for Eligible Kids Under 5

CNBC: Covid Vaccine “Deserts” and Tech Woes: Publix’s Florida Rollout Highlights Risks as Retailers Play a Larger Role

The Hill: Florida-Based Publix Says They Will Not Offer Vaccine “At This Time” to Kids Under 5

Web MD: Florida Governor Rejects COVID Vaccines for Young Kids

WFLA: Pediatrics Group Calls on Florida to Order COVID Vaccine for Kids

NY Times: After Public Pressure, Florida Allows Pediatricians to Order Vaccines for Very Young Children

McClatchy: Congressional Panel Demands DeSantis Briefing on COVID Vaccines for Kids by End of Month

Tampa Bay Times: “Waiting for So Long”: COVID Vaccines Reach Youngest Floridians

Miami Herald: COVID Vaccine for Infants Arrive in Florida. Here’s Why Doctors Are Throwing Them Away

For infants too young to receive vaccination, having a mother who received two doses of a vaccine while pregnant reduced hospitalizations by 38% during the omicron wave and 80% during delta. Vaccine efficacy doubled when administered after 20 weeks rather than earlier.

MedPage: Newborns’ Protection with Moms’ COVID Vax Dips During Omicron

NEJM: Maternal Vaccination and Risk of Hospitalization for Covid-19 among Infants

On March 25, 2022, USA Today reported that over 600,000 snowbirds have been included in Florida’s official vaccination tally.

That happened in over 100 zip codes. Many “vaccine tourists” were in Miami-Dade County. For cases and deaths in the state, Florida counts only permanent residents.

USA Today: Florida Overcounts Vaccinations by 600,000 People. Snowbirds Responsible, Analysis Shows

The vaccination rate reported by the CDC is 80%. This figure represents only those eligible for vaccination and includes partially vaccinated people.

Florida’s population is currently 21,975,117, so 66% completed at least a vaccination series.

At most, 27% of permanent Florida residents and snowbirds have received a booster shot.

Note that the segment of the population with the highest percentage of boosted individuals also has lower than expected death rates compared to the national averages:

Salemi USF: Covid Deaths by State

A review of fifteen studies concerning vaccination and the conglomeration of symptoms known as “long Covid” found a significantly reduced rate in those who were vaccinated before getting infected.

Post-viral vaccination reduced or eliminated symptoms in up to 30% of long Covid sufferers. However, symptoms did worsen on occasion after vaccination.

UK Health Security: The Effectiveness of Vaccination Against Long Covid

Mixing vaccine types for a booster shot will give you the best protection because they stimulate different parts of your immune system. If you had 2 or 3 Moderna, I recommend getting a Pfizer and vice versa. The CDC recommends using the same vaccine for the first two doses.

Ars Technica: Pfizer, Moderna Vaccines Aren’t the Same; Study Finds Antibody Differences: The Findings Add Further Weight to the Idea of Mix-and-Match Boosting

CDC: Interchangeability of COVID-19 Vaccine Products

On May 24^th, the CDC added approval for a fifth shot for people 12+ with moderate to severe immunocompromisation.

The agency previously approved a second booster shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine for all adults aged 50+.

Children aged 5–11 are eligible for one booster regardless of health status.

There are no safety issues associated with the additional shot. People on Medicare can receive a second booster shot at no cost.

CDC: CDC Strengthens Recommendations and Expands Eligibility for COVID-19 Booster Shots

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccines for People Who Are Moderately or Severely Immunocompromised

Center for Medicare: Eligible Individuals Can Receive Second COVID-19 Booster Shot at No Cost

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters

Research involving breakthrough omicron infections indicates the number of viral particles is significantly lower in people who have had booster shots. People with two doses carried the same amount of virus as unvaccinated people.

Nature: Infectious Viral Load in Unvaccinated and Vaccinated Individuals Infected with Ancestral, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2

For all adults in the US, the CDC has removed people who received only a primary series, backdated to December 2021.

Looking at the numbers for May compared to April, hospitalization rates roughly doubled for every age and vaccination status category.

Among those 18–49 years old during May 2022, unvaccinated people were hospitalized at a rate of 31.65/100,000. At least one booster prevented 63% of hospitalizations (11.62/100,000):

Unvaccinated people aged 50–64 were hospitalized in May at a rate of 72.73/100,000. At least one booster dose prevented 71% of hospitalizations (21.17/100,000).

This is a significant decline from January, when a booster prevented 92% of hospitalizations in that demographic group:

Results in May for senior citizens showed that unvaccinated individuals required hospital care at a rate of 335.37/100,000.

Boosters prevented 74% of hospitalizations which would have occurred without vaccination (87.78/100,000). In January, boosters prevented 94%:

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

The risk of death among unvaccinated people and those with a primary series during the week of April 24–30, 2022, is as follows:

Relative Risk of Death by Vaccination Status
Age	Primary Series	Unvaccinated
18–29	1	1
30–49	1	6x
50–64	1	4x
65–79	1	8x
80+	1	4x

CDC: Rates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status

During the initial omicron wave in Israel, a second booster prevented 64% of hospitalizations and 72% of Covid deaths among nursing home residents compared to those who received only a first booster.

MedPage: Second COVID Booster Protected Seniors in Long-Term Care

This graphic depicts the vaccination status of the US adult population compared to the death rates during September 2021–February 2022:

Peterson-KFF: COVID-19 Mortality Preventable by Vaccines

On January 14, 2022, Governor DeSantis’s office announced it would not enforce the federal government’s vaccine mandate for healthcare workers.

The US Supreme Court upheld the requirement for all healthcare facilities which receive federal funds on the 13^th.

On January 19^th, the Florida Department of Health placed the epidemiologist who led Orange County’s pandemic response on administrative leave.

The state considered charging him with a criminal offense for sending an email chiding the county’s public health employees for their 40% vaccination rate. That suspension ended on March 22, 2022.

A day later, Governor DeSantis promoted a conspiracy theory by asserting that many nurses are avoiding vaccination because “they’re trying to have families.”

Numerous studies confirm that vaccination does not cause infertility; in fact, getting Covid can reduce male fertility.

Becker’s Hospital Review: DeSantis Casts aside CMS Vaccine Rule for Hospitals

B B C : T o p Florida Health Official on Leave over Support for Vaccination

Physicians Society Central FL: Orange’s State Health officer Raul Pino Reinstated After Leave over Vaccine E-mail

Twitter: DeSantis Pushes Infertility Conspiracy

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

On March 7, 2022, a discussion panel moderated by Governor DeSantis recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to the risk of adolescent males developing myocarditis.

The state surgeon general noted that Florida is the only state to make such a declaration.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Says Healthy Kids Shouldn’t Get COVID Vaccine, Contradicting CDC

At least four researchers cited by the state disagreed with how Florida officials used their work.

A pediatrics professor from Vanderbilt University Medical Center who co-authored one of the papers said, “I think there is cherry-picking of sentences to support what (the state) wanted. You don’t just pick one sentence from one paper that agrees with what you think you want to say. That’s not what a health department is supposed to do.”

Each of the studies Florida officials cited recommended Covid vaccination for children as safe and effective. Florida health officials omitted that information in their updated guidelines. The researchers asserted that vaccination remains the best way to protect children from severe Covid.

Tampa Bay Times: COVID Researchers: Florida “Cherry-Picked” Our Work in Kid Vaccine Recommendation

On May 27, 2022, the Florida Department of Health threatened to fine the Special Olympics $27,500,000 if the organization continued to mandate vaccination for participants in a week-long national tournament.

The organization issued a statement saying they would nullify the decree “based upon the Florida Department of Health’s interpretation of Florida law.”

Politico: Special Olympics Reverses Vaccine Requirement After Florida Threatens $27.5M Fine

In contrast to the myocarditis arising from vaccination, the inflammation resulting from SARS-CoV-2 can cause life-threatening heart conditions in children, adolescents, and adults.

A study of 77,000 children found that 5–11-year-old boys were 540% more likely to develop heart inflammation after a Covid infection than after vaccination.

No girls of that age who were vaccinated developed myocarditis or pericarditis. Hormones account for the differences in risk between age groups and sexes:

Circulation: Myocarditis with COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines

MMWR: Cardiac Complications After SARS-CoV-2 Infection and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination—PCORnet, United States, January 2021–January 2022

Since the pandemic began, 13,000 Florida minors had required hospitalization for Covid in Florida alone as of March 17, 2022.

Forty-two had died, and many of the survivors have subsequently developed serious health conditions, like diabetes.

While children are at lower risk than adults, throughout the US, Covid is one of the top ten causes of death in those aged 5–11:

Tampa Bay Times: The CDC Says Kids Should Get the COVID Vaccine—Despite Florida

Peterson-KFF: COVID-19 Leading Cause of Death Ranking

Throughout the US, children are three times as likely to have had severe disease from omicron than from previous variants.

JAMA: Acute Upper Airway Disease in Children with the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant of SARS-CoV-2—A Report form the US National COVID Cohort Collaborative

MMWR: Hospitalizations of Children Aged 5–11 Years with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19—COVID-NET, 14 States, March 2020–February 2022

At the height of the first omicron wave, unvaccinated children aged 5–11 in the US were hospitalized at three times the rate of their vaccinated peers.

During May, Covid hospitalizations occurred for unvaccinated children 70% more often than for their vaccinated peers (3.35/100,000 vs. 2.47/100,000):

On May 17, 2022, the FDA approved a booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5–11.

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

MedPage: FDA Authorizes COVID Booster for Younger Kids—Agency Citers Concern over Omicron, Long Covid in Its Reasoning

The most recent CDC data has removed information for adolescents who received only a primary series of vaccinations.

During April 2022, unvaccinated teens were 53% more likely to need hospitalization than boosted peers (7.75/100,000 vs 3.65/100,000):

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

As of June 16, 2022, 24% of Florida residents under 11 had received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine; 56% of adolescents had.

I have no idea why the state claimed 2% fewer teens were vaccinated this last week compared to three weeks ago:

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

June 2, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Covid Deaths in Florida:

During June 2021–May 2022, Florida reported only 7,220 of the 39,216 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (18%).

During May 2022, cumulative data indicated there were 382 Covid deaths among permanent Florida residents. Only 37 were counted as “New Deaths” (10%):

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

Despite making national news for the state government’s attempt to cover up the number of deaths, nothing has changed in the Florida Department of Health’s methodology.

The Hill: Florida Reported ‘Artificial Decline’ in COVID-19 Deaths as Cases Were Surging

On June 4^th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 744 deaths. I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

On June 6, 2022, a report from the Florida Auditor General revealed that the state omitted approximately 3,000 Covid deaths from official reporting during March–October 2020. The Tampa Bay Times article includes a link to the audit. Those deaths were still not reflected in the June 19^th report.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida’s Health Department Undercounted COVID Cases and Deaths, State Audit Says

When the state receives a report of a death from an earlier week, that information is added to “Cumulative Deaths” without being noted in “Previous Week Deaths.”

It usually takes more than one week for death reports to get sent to the state.

Florida Politics: Florida Reports 1000+ Covid-19 Deaths in Past Week

Using the June 16^th cumulative data from the state and the CDC data from June 23^rd, which showed 75,096 and 75,574 Florida deaths, I determined there were 478 Covid deaths reported in Florida during June 17–23, 2022.

This is a 96% increase compared to the previous week (244). Only 54 of them were counted as new deaths (11%):

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

CDC: Florida Reported Deaths by County

Clicking on individual counties reveals a higher number than the state’s “new deaths” total.

During June 17–23, Miami-Dade County reported 59 deaths; Palm Beach County had 53; Broward had 32; and Hillsborough had 23:

Compared to the previous week, Palm Beach County’s deaths rose by 212%; Miami-Dade’s rose by 127%; Broward rose by 23%; and Hillsborough rose by 77%.

Counties in the north of the state with the largest increases had relatively few deaths:

CDC: Percent Change in Florida Deaths from Previous 7 Days

According to CDC data, there had been 75,574 Covid deaths in Florida by June 23, 2022.

Florida residents at least sixteen years old became eligible for vaccination on April 1, 2021.

SARS-CoV-2 infections have killed 41,381 permanent residents of the state since that date. Over half the Covid deaths in Florida have occurred since April 1, 2021.

Despite having only 6.6% of the US population, this represents 9.1% of all American Covid-19 deaths since everyone at least 16 years old qualified for vaccination:

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

Florida’s Covid death rate ranks third in the US since the delta wave began on July 1, 2021, with 153 deaths/100,000. You can click on the web site map to see the information for each state:

Datawrapper: Covid Death Rates Since Vaccines

Nationwide, 7.1% of senior citizens who have tested positive have died. This week, I cannot calculate that statistic for Florida due to the lack of data from the state:

CDC: Demographic Trends of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC

In the aftermath of his hard drive crashing, Dr. Salemi is making some impressive upgrades to his site.

Here is Florida’s ranking of Covid deaths stratified by age. A Mortality Rate Ratio = 1 is the national average, so infants under one year old and senior citizens are the only age groups which have fared better than expected.

Permanent Florida residents aged 85+ rank 9^th best among the 50 states and Washington DC, with 25% fewer deaths than the national average for that age group.

Children aged 5–14 have the worst ranking within the state at 4^thworst. There have been 36% more Covid deaths among permanent Florida residents in that age group than the national average.

The state is the 5^th worst in the nation for deaths among ages 1–4. Washington DC and Delaware are ranked worse in per capita deaths for ages 1–4, but each has only one death:

Salemi USF: Covid Deaths by State

Florida does not report deaths by vaccination status, so I cannot determine the percentage of deaths occurring in unvaccinated people, those who received a full series, or boosted individuals.

However, note the rough correlation between expected mortality and vaccination rates:

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

The CDC recently updated their algorithm for calculating excess deaths in the US to include six years of data, rather than four, due to the pandemic skewing the expected numbers. This accounts for the higher than typical age of Florida’s population.

You can click on each bar on their site to see the data for that week. It takes up to eight weeks for complete reporting:

Here is another way to visualize that chart. You can see all states by clicking Percent Excess Deaths on the CDC’s site:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Florida has a higher than expected proportion of excess deaths compared to other states. This is the total number of excess deaths throughout the pandemic, not the number per 100,000 people.

California has 70% more people than Florida yet the number of excess deaths is nearly the same:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 by Jurisdiction/Cause

In this map of Covid deaths rates, if you go to the CDC’s site and click on Florida, you will see on the June 25^th update that only 85 deaths are reported for the last 7 days, despite 478 when comparing the state’s cumulative deaths for June 23, 2022, with June 16, 2022.

The other large states have much higher numbers for the week.

Florida now ranks second for the highest proportion of Covid deaths among the six largest states: CA (231); TX (300); FL (351); NY (255); PA (356); IL (303):

CDC: United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing by State and Territory

To get an accurate picture of that map for the last seven days, we must determine the death rate for 478 deaths, not 85.

Doing that shows that Florida had 2.25 deaths/100,000, ranking 1^st or 2^nd in the number of deaths reported in the last 7 days:

CDC: US Covid-19 7-Day Death Rate per 100,000, by State/Territory

Covid Cases in Florida:

With the rise in at-home testing since the omicron wave began, it is important to know that official confirmed cases are likely to be significantly undercounted.

For the week ending on June 23, 2022, the CDC reported 73,796 confirmed Covid cases.

Adding those to the state’s previous cumulative count gives us a total of 6,419,459 cumulative Covid cases among permanent residents.

Florida reported 74,323 new cases for the week ending on June 16^th, so that is a 1% decrease:

June 16, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

On June 6, 2022, a report from the Florida Auditor General revealed that 60% of people who tested positive for Covid during March–October 2020, were never notified of their results.

That affected at least 183,000 individuals infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and likely had a major impact on preventing Covid transmission in the state. The Tampa Bay Times article includes a link to the audit.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida’s Health Department Undercounted COVID Cases and Deaths, State Audit Says

On June 4, 2021, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 43,535 cases.

I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

Dr. Salemi has begun publishing state rankings of confirmed cases, with the addition of Washington DC and New York City.

On June 23, 2022, Florida’s ranking is 2^nd worst, behind only Hawaii:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 Cases in Florida

Clicking on this map at the CDC’s web site will show you the exact number of confirmed cases for any county.

During June 17–23, Miami-Dade declined to 16,995. Hillsborough declined to 4,743. Orange County—where Disney is located—dropped to 4,351:

CDC: Florida Reported Cases by County

The greatest increases in cases are concentrated in the northern parts of the state. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough reported 1% decreases. Orange County declined by 7%:

CDC: Florida Percent Change of Cases

Dr. Jason Salemi was posting very helpful county-level case data until April 22^nd. Unfortunately, the county-level data he used to post is no longer available:

April 28, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

April 22, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

We do not have information regarding the number of children who tested positive during June 17–23, 2022.

This school year began on August 10^th, and the Hillsborough County School District instituted a mandatory mask mandate on August 18^th. They ended it on October 15^th.

Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings and now leaves the decision about quarantining after a close contact at school to the child’s parents.

HCSD: Covid Frequently Asked Questions

A study of schools with more than 1.1 million students and 157,000 staff members determined a 72% drop of in-school Covid transmission occurred with mandatory mask policies instead of optional or partial masking.

NIH: Mandatory Masking in Schools Reduced COVID-19 Cases During Delta Surge

The Hillsborough County School District published a notice effective January 31, 2022:

“The Florida Department of Health has shifted COVID-19 case investigation focus to: ‘high-congregate settings’ (nursing homes/skilled nursing/assisted living facilities, correctional facilities, homeless shelters, group homes) at high risk for secondary transmission or poor health outcomes among their residents as a result of COVID-19 infection. Public schools and daycare settings are not considered congregate settings.”

During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.

H i l l sborough County School District: COVID-19 Student Protocol

Jan 27, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening

On January 26^th, the Orange County School District announced that the state will no longer permit excused absences for Covid effective January 31^st.

Children who quarantined after a Covid exposure would be considered truant:

Orange County School District: Unexcused Absences for Covid

Schools closed for the summer after May 26^th. As of May 23, 2022, there had been 29,051 cases during this school year in the Hillsborough County School District:

Hillsborough County Public Schools Covid Dashboard

Florida Covid Testing:

A report released by the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis in June 2022 explains Florida’s approach to the pandemic:

In March 2020, a radiologist named Scott Atlas began pushing the federal government to stop the “a massive overreaction” that was “inciting irrational fear.”

He claimed that SARS-CoV-2 would kill about 10,000 Americans, a number so small that it “would be unnoticed” compared to influenza.

Dr. Atlas advocated isolating high-risk people and exposing lower-risk Americans to the virus as quickly as possible. Masks and widespread social distancing would prevent that from happening, so he eschewed them.

On July 4, 2020, another like-minded Trump Administration official wrote this:

Dr. Deborah Birx pointed out that many Americans over 70 live in multi-generational households, to no avail.

Dr. Atlas advised Ron DeSantis on Florida’s Covid response.

Several months later, Jared Kushner secretly hired him to join the Trump Administration. Mr. Kushner told him to hide his badge and had him anonymously join Coronavirus Task Force online meetings for the first two weeks he was employed there, because Dr. Birx “would be extremely sensitive and upset and threatened if I came in.”

A memorandum written by Dr. Atlas called “Strategy for Moving Forward Covid-19” stated this:

He also claimed, “…emerging research adding insights into immunity and suggesting that herd immunity may arise with a far lower population infection rate than originally thought…We expect to see more cases with more social interactions, because this is a contagious disease.”

In August 2020, Dr. Atlas invited several doctors to the White House who agreed with his approach. One of them was Dr. Joseph Ladapo, who now serves as the Florida Surgeon General.

Dr. Birx wrote in her objection to the meeting which she called “dangerous”, “any credibility given to these individuals in this moment while we were headed into the fall would be dangerous for our overall response and ability to contain the virus.” They met anyway.

Fearing that large-scale testing was harmful because it would interfere with achieving herd immunity and lead to “lockdowns [which would] hurt Americans more than the virus,” Dr. Atlas wrote this on August 3, 2020:

After fierce debate, the testing guidance was drastically weakened against the wishes of the CDC director. An unknown person removed the recommendation for people without symptoms to self-isolate for 14 days after close contact with an infected person. Testing declined significantly.

In September, Dr. Atlas sent an email claiming that PCR tests were “misleadingly positive.” His “remedy” was to make the lab work stop after fewer cycles, making the virus harder to detect:

Three weeks after restrictions were loosened, the CDC reinstated 14 days of isolation even with a negative test.

When Jared Kushner read a draft tweet created for President Trump to ask everyone to wear a mask to slow viral spread, Dr. Atlas objected that it wasn’t consistent with the president’s disparagement of masks.

It was weakened to read “only if you cannot socially distance.” Dr. Atlas then wrote several op-eds claiming that masking could be harmful due to contamination and giving a false sense of security:

His anti-mask program enabled the spread of the virus, perfectly in keeping with his desire to get as many people infected quickly as possible.

The subcommittee cited Dr. Atlas’ schemes to promote herd immunity as a major factor in the subsequent rejection of vaccines by many Americans.

While meeting with the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus, multiple former senior officials on the White House Coronavirus Task Force emphasized that Dr. Atlas severely impaired the effectiveness of the pandemic response.

Dr. Birx estimated that 130,000 more lives were lost due to those decisions, which closely mirror what we have seen implemented by the DeSantis Administration in Florida. You can find a link to the full report here:

MedPage: Report Shows Trump Administration Embraced Herd Immunity via Mass Infections—The Strategy Likely Contributed to Many Preventable Deaths, Report Notes

A scandal erupted on December 30^th concerning 1,000,000 expired antigen tests sitting in a warehouse.

On January 3, 2022, the Florida Surgeon General decried the “testing psychology” which seeks to identify all Covid cases to slow the rate of community transmission.

On January 6^th, the governor announced the state was shipping 1,000,000 test kits to long-term care and nursing facilities.

Florida’s web site shifted its focus to testing. Specifically, that people who are not high-risk should avoid it:

T h e Hill: Florida Surgeon General Blasts “Testing Psychology” around COVID-19

The Hill: DeSantis Administration Says It Let a Million COVID-19 Tests Expire in Florida Warehouse

The Hill: Florida Sending 1 Million Free COVID-19 Tests to Elderly Communities

On February 7^th, the Florida Department of Health officially reprimanded two testing companies which failed to report the results of 230,000 Covid tests taken during December and January.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Contractors Didn’t Report 230,000 COVID Tests on Time During Omicron Wave

Every household in the US is now eligible to receive 3 shipments of 4 free Covid tests from the federal government at Covid.gov.

The shift to home-based testing with the first omicron wave is highly likely to result in an under-reporting of Covid cases.

The CDC advises those with a positive at-home test to report the results to their doctor.

CDC: Self Testing at Home or Anywhere

Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate less than 5% for two weeks before reopening. That means enough testing is taking place to capture even asymptomatic cases.

JHU: COVID-19 Testing: Understanding the “Percent Positive”

Florida crossed the 5% threshold during April 9–21, 2022:

June 2, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

According to data which the state reported to the CDC, seven-day positivity rate averages during June 17–23 ranged from 21.15% to 21.95, with an average of 21.57% (a 5% rise).

That means there were about 318,000 cases in Florida during June 17–23, 2022, a 4% increase:

CDC: Florida Daily Covid Testing

Dr. Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist from the University of South Florida, was posting very helpful county-level data until April 22^nd. Unfortunately, his site no longer includes county-level data since the crash of his hard drive:

April 22, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

On June 23, 2022, every Florida county exceeded the 5% threshold. Disney’s location (Orange County) had a 25.54% positivity rate:

CDC: Florida Positivity Percentages by County

June 2, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Fifty of the state’s 67 counties experienced an increase in their positivity rates compared to a week earlier. Twenty-seven reported increases of at least two full percentage points.

You can check on the amount of change in your county’s positivity rate by going to the link under this map:

CDC: Florida Change in Weekly Percentage of Positivity by County

Covid Therapeutics in FL:

Until January 8^th, the state continued to emphasize monoclonal antibody treatment as the focus of the Covid-19 Response web site:

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

Mutations which have resulted in the omicron variants render ineffective almost all the monoclonal antibodies previously in use, including the antibody combination used in Regeneron against the delta variant (imdevimab and casirivimab).

In the US, 100% of new cases were due to the omicron strains by January 29, 2022:

NEJM: Efficacy of Antibodies and Antiviral Drugs Against Covid-19 Omicron Variant

March 24, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

For the week ending January 8^th, 97% of sequenced cases in the region which includes Florida were omicron:

Jan 13, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

At that time, there was only one monoclonal antibody produced in the US which could attach to circulating omicron BA.1 particles.

Sotrovimab worked against the original omicron variant and omicron BA.1 at a dosage three times that required to neutralize the delta variant.

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

NEJM: Efficacy of Antibodies and Antiviral Drugs Against Covid-19 Omicron Variant

During the first week of January 2022, hospitals in Florida used 140 of the state’s stockpile of 4,400 Sotrovimab doses, in contrast to over 2,700 doses of the ineffective Regeneron monoclonal antibody.

On January 18^th, the state announced the opening of additional monoclonal antibody infusion centers to distribute what remained of the 15,000 additional doses of Regeneron secured on January 7^th.

T a m p a B a y T i m e s : Omicron Undermines Florida’s Strategy to Combat C oronavirus: Gov. Ron DeSantis Continues to Tout Monoclonal Antibody Therapies, but New Evidence Shows Their Effectiveness Against COVID-19 Is Waning

Florida Health: Florida to Open Additional Monoclonal Antibody Therapy Treatment Sites

A week later, the FDA revised its Emergency Use Authorizations for the two components of Regeneron, prohibiting their use against the omicron variant. The federal government stopped shipping those monoclonal antibodies.

Why the state continues to emphasize this is mystifying:

F D A : Coronoavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Limits Use of Certain Monoclonal Antibodies to Treat COVID-19 Due to the Omicron Variant

Governor DeSantis accused the Biden Administration of having no clinical evidence, despite the manufacturers of both antibodies noting they are now ineffective:

Daniel Dale: DeSantis vs Regeneron and Lilly

Abcellera: Statement on the Neutralization Activity of Its Monoclonal Antibody Therapies Against the Omicron Variant of Concern

R o n DeSantis: Governor DeSantis Condemns Biden Administration’s Haphazard Decision to Revoke Authorization of Lifesaving Monoclonal Antibody Treatments

The subvariant called BA.2 was first detected in the US on January 15^th.

With the rise in the even more transmissible BA.2.12.1—which evolved from BA.2—the CDC separated that newer strain from the subvariant into a new category. It accounts for 56% of sequenced samples, vs. 9% for BA.2.

In May 2022, the CDC began calculating the percentages of BA.4 (11%) and BA.5 (24%). BA.1 has been completely replaced:

In this map, pink shows the amount of omicron BA.2 and red represents BA.2.12.1. Light green designates BA.4 and dark green depicts BA.5.

In the region which includes Florida during June 12–18, 2022, the percentage of BA.2 fell to 8%; BA.2.12.1 declined to 58%; BA.4 rose to 9%; and BA.5 doubled to 25%:

Sotrovimab is 27 times less effective against BA.2 than for BA.1. Therefore, on April 5, 2022, the FDA amended the Emergency Use Authorization to revoke the use of Sotrovimab nationwide.