Florida Covid Statistics: What Is Really Happening, April 21, 2022

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

This shows the level of community transmission from a week earlier:

Hillsborough County remains a Hotspot, which means it has a high burden of disease:

CDC COVID-19 Community Profile Report

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

We have tended to follow the UK’s trends by about three weeks. In England during March 19–26, 1 in 13 residents had Covid. Anecdotally, the omicron BA.2 subvariant appears to be infecting UK residents who were not exposed to the earlier omicron variants.

UK Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 1 April 2022

Until June 2021, Florida reported Covid statistics every day with an online database. Weeks before the delta variant took hold in the state with devastating effects, the Department of Health switched to a weekly pdf while withholding data previously available to the public.

Now Florida is halving the frequency of reports to the public to every two weeks. The state is directing people to the CDC, where there is an information lag.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Limits COVID Data to Every 2 Weeks, State Says Via Meme: Department of Health Officials Announced the Change Via Twitter, Using Vince McMahon and Cat Memes

Palm Beach Post: Florida to Update COVID-19 Data Less Frequently than All Other States

I heartily disagree with this official announcement made from the Florida Department of Health retweeting their spokesman’s personal Twitter account on March 11^th. We need more information, not less.

Unfortunately, the tactic works: even Floridians tend to express shock when I tell them about the most recent statistics.

Jan 6, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

During the omicron wave, Florida did not increase the frequency of reporting, leaving many residents unaware of the amount of viral transmission occurring until Christmas Eve.

In the two weeks before December 24^th, the number of confirmed Covid cases increased 850%:

Public health experts view a positivity rate of 5% or below sufficient to capture all Covid cases.

During that same period ending on December 23^rd, the positivity rate rose from 2.6% to 13.9%. So, the actual number of cases was likely 180% higher than what the state reported:

JHU: COVID-19 Testing: Understanding the “Percent Positive”

Beginning in June 2021, Florida removed all archived Covid data from their web site. Until March 17^th, they replaced the statistics from the previous week with a new report. Now that occurs every two weeks.

That makes it much more difficult—even for those who have saved the old data—to see the actual numbers of cases and deaths. No hospitalization information is included.

On the Florida Department of Health web site, you can locate influenza records from 2001 but not Covid data from April 1–7, 2022.

T B T : W h y D o e s n ‘t F l o r i d a T r u s t I t s R e s i d e n t s with Basic COVID Information?

FL Covid Deaths:

As of April 14, 2022, FL has had 73,830 Covid deaths among permanent residents.
On June 4, 2021, the state removed 744 deaths among non-permanent residents and stopped reporting them.
Weekly deaths among permanent residents reported by FL decreased by 7% to 141.
The state is claiming only 18% of them as “New Deaths” (26)
During June 2021–March 2022, Florida has reported only 7,096 of the 38,089 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (19%).
3,500 permanent Florida residents died from Covid in March 2022.
Miami-Dade County had 18 deaths reported to the CDC last week, an 18% decrease.
Hillsborough County had 10 deaths, an 11% weekly increase.
74% of Florida deaths occurred among senior citizens in the last two weeks.
FL has 9.2% of US deaths when vaccinations were available to all over 15, for 6.6% of the US population.
Since July 1, 2021, FL has the third worst death rate in the US.
Over half of Florida’s Covid deaths have occurred since everyone over 15 became eligible for vaccination.
CA has 70% more people than Florida, yet almost the same number of excess deaths.
Among the 6 largest states, the Florida death rate is below only Pennsylvania’s.
FL does not report Covid deaths stratified by vaccination status.

FL Covid Vaccinations:

As of April 21^st, Florida claimed a 74% vaccination rate. This includes anyone with at least one shot, over 600,000 snowbirds, and “vaccine tourists.” It excludes children under 5.
61% of people in Florida have at least completed a vaccine series.
At most, 23% have booster shots, an important precaution against illness and transmission of the omicron variant.
Boosters prevented 88% of omicron hospitalizations among people aged 18–49; 76% for ages 50–64; and 85% for senior citizens.
Mixing vaccine types will give you the best protection: they stimulate different parts of your immune system. If you had 2 or 3 Moderna, I recommend getting a Pfizer and vice versa.
As of 4-6-22, Medicare will cover 100% of the cost of a second booster shot.
The state does not report cases or deaths by vaccination status.
On 1-14-22, the governor refused to enforce the federal mandate for healthcare workers upheld by the Supreme Court a day earlier.
On 1-19-22, the state put Orange County’s epidemiologist on leave for chiding his employees’ 40% vaccination rate.
On 1-15-22 the governor said many nurses avoid vaccination due to “trying to have families.” Numerous studies confirm vaccination does not cause infertility.
On 3-7-22, a discussion panel moderated by Governor DeSantis recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to the risk of adolescent males developing myocarditis. Florida is the only state to make such a declaration.
The risk of cardiac inflammation due to Covid is 540% higher for boys aged 5–11. No girls developed symptoms after vaccination.
Among 400 children hospitalized during the omicron wave, 1 in 3 had no preexisting conditions, 1 in 5 required care in the ICU, and 9 in 10 were unvaccinated.
The FL Dept of Heath website claims the FDA recommends vaccination for those 12+, not 5+.
As of 4-8-22, only 23% of those aged 5–11 had at least one shot; 60% of adolescents did.

Florida Covid Cases:

With the rise in at-home testing, since the omicron wave began, it is important to know that official confirmed cases are likely to be significantly undercounted.
The state reported 20,860 new confirmed cases among permanent Florida residents. This is a 33% increase since last week.
There have been 5,899,188 confirmed Covid cases in Florida among permanent residents.
On June 4, 2021, the state removed all data from anyone who is not a permanent resident and stopped reporting it. This deleted 43,535 cases.
The first omicron wave began in Miami-Dade County, with the rest of the state lagging a few weeks behind. That makes the 270% rise in cases over the last five weeks particularly alarming.
32 counties have at least substantial transmission, up from 4 when the last report was issued two weeks ago.
After an increase of 16% in cases this week, Hillsborough County remains a Hotspot.
662 children under five tested positive in Florida, an increase of 51% over the previous week (439). Among those 5–19, 2,527 tested positive, 150% more than two weeks ago.
Reported cases in the Hillsborough County School District rose 4%, from 73 to 76.
Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings.
Parents decide about quarantining after a close contact at school.
On 1-31-22, FL shifted its focus to “high congregate settings,” not schools and day cares.
During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.
On 1-31-22, FL students absent due to Covid exposure are truant per Orange County.

Florida Covid Testing and Prevention:

Due to at-home testing, the number of cases is likely to be under-reported.
On 4-9-22, Florida reported the fewest tests since June 2020.
The CDC advises notifying your doctor of positive at-home tests.
Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate <5% for 2 weeks before reopening.
According to the Florida Dept of Health report, the positivity rate rose by 24% to 6.1%.
However, CDC data using information from the state showed the positivity rate climbed steadily from 7.27% on the 15^th to 8.70% on the 21^st.
The positivity rate in Miami-Dade County rose by 14% to 10.4%. That means there are likely 108% more cases than reported there (12,742).
County positivity rates range from 1.2–13.3%. Three weeks ago, four counties had positivity rates above 5%. Now over half of them do.
On 1-4-22, FL’s Surgeon General decried “testing psychology” to identify all cases.
On 1-6-22, FL’s Agriculture Secretary revealed 1,000,000 expired antigen tests.
On 1-8-22, FL’s web site told those not at high risk of severe cases to avoid testing.
On 1-9-22, the governor announced 1,000,000 tests for long-term care and nursing homes
On 2-7-22, the state reprimanded two companies which failed to report 230,000 test results from December and January until that week.
On 3-2-22 Governor DeSantis chided a group of teens in a county with a high alert level and told them to remove their face masks. He then used that episode to raise campaign funds. Under those conditions, the CDC recommends that everyone wear masks indoors.
On 3-31-22, a UF faculty committee revealed discrepancies in the surgeon general’s hiring as a tenured professor.

Florida Covid Treatment:

Omicron mutations render ineffective almost all monoclonal antibodies previously in use.
100% of FL cases are due to that viral strain.
For the week ending January 8^th, 97% of sequenced cases in the region which includes Florida were omicron.
Sotrovimab works against the omicron BA.1 variant at a dosage 3x more than for delta. It is 27 times less effective for omicron BA.2.
During the first week of January, Florida used 140 of its 4,400 Sotrovimab doses and 2,700 of Regeneron.
On 1-18-22, FL opened more infusion centers to distribute 15,000 doses of Regeneron.
The FDA revised its EUA for Regeneron on 1-24-22, prohibiting its use against omicron.
DeSantis objected to no shipments; all FL antibody infusion centers closed on 1-25-22.
During April 3–9, 2022, the percentage of BA.2 increased from 80% to 91% in the region which includes Florida (71.7% BA.2 and 19.3% of the newer BA.2.12.1).
On 4-5-22, the FDA revoked the Emergency Use Authorization for Sotrovimab nationwide due to the predominance of BA.2 in every state.
A monoclonal antibody called bebtelovimab is effective against omicron BA.2 and other omicron variants. I do not have information on its efficacy for BA.2.12.1. It began shipping to Florida during February 14–20.
Here is the most recent federal allocation of 10,957 Covid-specific treatments to Florida: 1,705 post-exposure Bebtelovimab (for all omicron types); 6,540 of the oral Paxlovid; 2,712 of the less-effective oral Molnupiravir.
In total, there are enough highly effective treatments for 8,245 Covid patients being delivered to the state.
On 1-8-21, the FDA issued an Evusheld EUA for those with severe immunosuppression.
On 2-25-22, the dosage doubled due to BA.2. Prior recipients need an additional shot.
People with certain cancers or organ transplants receive the highest priority.
DeSantis announced it on 12-17-21, when Covid was raging through Miami-Dade County.
First shipments only to a small private fee-based clinic in Broward County on 12-24-21.
People flew from out of state to receive it at the iCare Clinic.
The large transplant hospital in Miami was to receive it four weeks later.
During Jan 24–30, 2022 the federal government sent 32,000 outpatient treatments.
Florida received a monthly allocation of 12,984 doses of pre-exposure Evusheld for severely immunocompromised people.

Florida Covid Hospitalizations:

Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Dept of Health and Human Services.
For August 1, 2020–April 21, 2022, Florida has had 412,875 new hospital admissions for Covid patients. This represents 8.9% of all Covid admissions for 6.6% of the US population.
For April 15–21, 2022, there were 107 admissions/day (737), 13% more in a week.
The adult hospitalization state rank remained at 17^th, with a 5% increase/100,000.
On April 22^nd, there were 0.61 new admissions/100,000 Floridians; 0.50 the week before.
Hospitalizations for adult age groups all rose, ranging from a 10% increase for ages 30–39 to a 56% increase for ages 50–59.
Compared to delta, omicron admissions are higher for younger than 30 and older than 69.
Adult hospitalizations began rising again after April 8^th. Last week they rose 6% to 735.
Adult admissions increased by 27% to 131/day.
Percentage of people in the hospital who required care in the ICU fell to 11%.
The pediatric hospitalization state rank dropped from 24^th to 35^th, with a 35% decrease/100,000.
11 children were in Florida hospitals, a decrease of 48%; pediatric admissions fell by 52% to 17/day.
Children had experienced a 203% rise during the last week of December.
There were fewer pediatric hospitalizations than on Dec 3^rd (20).
One in 9 admissions were for children, down from 1 in 4 a week ago.
On 4-22-22, 78% of hospital beds in Florida were full; 2% used by Covid patients.
Covid patients accounted for 1,117 of them, 14% more patients than a week earlier.
2% of ICU beds were used by 84 Covid patients, 20% less than the previous week.
Overall, 73% of ICU beds are occupied in the state, the same as a week earlier.
1/3 are admitted for Covid diagnosis; 1/3 for Covid worsening an underlying condition; and one-third for reasons unrelated to their viral infection.

Until January 1, 2022, Florida was the only state in the US which was releasing statistics on a weekly basis. Several states switched to that schedule when Florida moved to reporting every two weeks. Information available in Florida’s reports is far more limited than what the state provided before June 2021.

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

T B T : W h y D o e s n ‘t F l o r i d a T r u s t I t s R e s i d e n t s with Basic COVID Information?

On October 18^th, I followed the Dept of Health’s recommendation to contact their COVID Data Analytics section, then went outside. When I returned, I had to do a major recovery process following an unauthorized attempt to access my hard drive.

I still have not received a response from the FL COVID Data Analytics group. Even the main site for the Florida Dept of Health appeared on an unsecure connection: www.floridahealth.gov.

On March 11^th, my computer was able to download the official Florida Covid report for the first time since October 2021. After being able to directly access two successive reports from the state, my computer began again refusing to do so with the April 8, 2022, file citing a security risk. Today, I can access the new report.

The Hill: University of Florida Initiates Investigation into Alleged Destruction of COVID-19 Research Data

Faculty at the University of Florida charge that they have felt external pressure from the highest levels of state government to delete data related to their Covid research. They also encountered “barriers to accessing and analyzing” data and “barriers to publication of scientific research which inhibited the ability of faculty to contribute scientific findings during a world-wide pandemic.”

On January 21, 2022, a federal judge sided with the plaintiffs in a 74-page ruling. He asserted the University of Florida was “willing to suffer threats to its accreditation, congressional inquiries, unrelenting bad press, an all-but-certain hit to its rankings, and the substantial monetary cost of hiring an experienced D.C. firm to defend its policy. The only thing UF will not do, it seems, is amend its policy to make clear that it will never consider viewpoint in denying a request to testify.” As in The Emperor’s New Clothes, the emperor’s lords, “fearing the loss of their jobs and the Emperor’s good grace, enabled the charade by praising the Emperor’s fine suit.”

Tampa Bay Times: Federal Judge Orders Injunction to UF’s Conflict of Interest Policy

On March 31, 2022, a University of Florida faculty committee released a report charging that the university violated its own practices when hiring Joseph Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general to a tenured position.

Required faculty input regarding his application was due on September 17, 2021. However, Dr. Ladapo was informed he had the appointment on September 16^th.

After receiving the letter with an October 1,2021 start date, Dr. Ladapo changed it to September 20^th, just prior to the news conference where the governor announced him as our new surgeon general:

In response to a reporter’s questions, Jeremy Redfern, the Florida Department of Health spokesman, sent an email stating, “The time of those at the University of Florida writing 100-page reports regarding hiring practices would be better spent working on important issues like research and curing cancer.”

Tampa Bay Times: Joseph Ladapo Hiring Violated UF Procedures, Faculty Report Says: Some Faculty Felt Ladapo, Florida’s Surgeon General, Was the Subject of “Preferential Treatment on the Basis of His Political Opinions”

This data from April 15–21, 2022, is the only Covid report available from the Florida Department of Health (DoH). Whenever the state adds a new report, it removes the previous one:

New cases = 20,860; Estimated cumulative cases = 5,899,188
Positivity rate = 6.1%
New deaths = 26; Cumulative deaths = 73,830
Vaccination rate = 74%
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 8,163,111
Total booster doses: 5,182,306

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

This data from April 8–14, 2022 comes from either the new state report on previous weeks or from the CDC as noted in my report from April 14^th:

New cases = 15,678; Estimated cumulative cases = 5,877,142
Positivity rate = 6.0%
New deaths = 151; Cumulative deaths = 73,689
Vaccination rate = 60% (as of 4-7-22)
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 8,668,671 (as of 4-7-22)
Total booster doses: 5,608,772 (as of 4-7-22)

Archived data on influenza statistics is readily available on the FL Dept of Health web site: Florida Influenza Surveillance Reports 2001–2022

On February 25, 2022, the CDC updated their masking guidelines based heavily upon Covid hospital admissions and utilization and, to a lesser extent, upon the number of new cases in a county.

It does not reflect the level of transmission. They range from low (green) through medium (yellow) to high risk (orange). Rural areas without hospital services may look better than they are.

You can click on the hyperlink below this for more specific information and the interactive map. This is the situation as of April 7, 2022. Every county in Florida is currently low:

In areas of high alert, the CDC advises everyone to wear a high-quality tight-fitting mask indoors.

Please note that this masking guideline does not apply to severely immunocompromised people who do not develop immunity from vaccination.

One researcher has created a helpful calculator for those in that category. It assumes that everyone eligible receives the pre-exposure treatment called Evusheld. He also concluded the CDC’s map is accurate for those with healthy immune systems.

CDC: COVID-19 Community Levels

MedPage: The Case Number That Will Make the Unsafe Safe, Revealed—CDC’s New Mask guidelines Don’t Keep the Immunocompromised Safe, Says Jeremy Faust, MD

In contrast, here is the map for the same date based upon the level of Community Transmission:

CDC: Community Transmission in US

On March 2, 2022, Governor DeSantis visited Hillsborough County. As he approached a group of masked high school students, he said, “You do not have to wear those masks. I mean, please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything and we’ve gotta stop with this COVID theater. So, if you want to wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”

He then used that outburst to raise campaign funds.

WFLA: ‘This Is Ridiculous’: DeSantis Scolds Students for Wearing Face Masks During USF Visit

The Hill: DeSantis Fundraises off Video of Him Chiding Students for Wearing Masks

Hillsborough County had a high alert level for Covid before and after that date. It corresponds to the CDC map above which currently shows the entire state at a low level of risk for overwhelming the healthcare system:

Feb 25, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Florida Covid Vaccinations:

On March 25, 2022, USA Today reported that over 600,000 snowbirds have been included in Florida’s official vaccination tally. That happened in over 100 zip codes. Many “vaccine tourists” were in Miami-Dade County.

For cases and deaths in the state, Florida counts only permanent residents.

USA Today: Florida Overcounts Vaccinations by 600,000 People. Snowbirds Responsible, Analysis Shows

The vaccination rate reported by the state remained at 74%. This figure represents only those eligible for vaccination and includes partially vaccinated people. Florida’s population is currently 21,975,117, so 61% have at least completed a vaccination series.

People who receive a booster shot are removed from the Series Completed Category and added to the Additional or Booster Dose Category. At most, 23% of permanent Florida residents have received a booster shot.

We cannot tell how many of the additional doses went to people who had already been boosted:

Receiving a booster shot is considered extremely important for providing protection against the omicron variant and for decreasing viral transmission. Since I created this chart, researchers have discovered that booster efficacy begins to wane at ten weeks:

Efficacy at Peak of Protection: Booster Efficacy Wanes 15% to 20% After Ten Weeks

UK Government: Monitoring Reports of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination: Data on the Real-World Efficacy of the COVID-19 Vaccines

Mixing vaccine types will give you the best protection because they stimulate different parts of your immune system. If you had 2 or 3 Moderna, I recommend getting a Pfizer and vice versa.

Ars Technica: Pfizer, Moderna Vaccines Aren’t the Same; Study Finds Antibody Differences: The Findings Add Further Weight to the Idea of Mix-and-Match Boosting

At the end of March, the CDC approved a second booster shot of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine for all adults aged 50+. There are no safety issues associated with the additional shot. As of April 6, 2022, people on Medicare can receive a second booster shot at no cost.

According to the CDC director, “If you’ve had omicron disease in the last two or three months, that really did boost your immune system quite well,” Walensky said, adding that these individuals could wait another two to four months before their second booster.

Center for Medicare: Eligible Individuals Can Receive Second COVID-19 Booster Shot at No Cost

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters

NBC News: CDC Director Clears Up Confusion on 2^nd COVID Boosters

New research involving breakthrough omicron infections indicates the number of viral particles is significantly lower in people who have had booster shots. People with two doses carried the same amount of virus as unvaccinated people.

Nature: Infectious Viral Load in Unvaccinated and Vaccinated Individuals Infected with Ancestral, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2

For all adults in the US, the CDC has added people who received booster shots as a separate category.

Among those 18–49 years old during February 20–26, 2022, unvaccinated people were hospitalized at a rate of 8.7/100,000.

A primary vaccine course prevented 76% of expected hospitalizations. Adding a booster shot increased the protection to 88%:

Unvaccinated people aged 50–64 were hospitalized at a rate of 16.9/100,000. Those who finished a vaccine series had 66% fewer hospitalizations than expected. A booster dose prevented 76% of hospitalizations.

This is a significant drop in efficacy from a month before, when a booster prevented 92% of hospitalizations in that demographic group:

Results for that same week for senior citizens showed that unvaccinated individuals required hospital care at a rate of 74.9/100,000. Completing a vaccine series reduced the likelihood of needing hospitalization by 65%.

Adding a booster prevented 85% of hospitalizations which would have occurred without vaccination. A month earlier, boosters prevented 94%:

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

On January 14, 2022, Governor DeSantis’s office announced it would not enforce the federal government’s vaccine mandate for healthcare workers. The US Supreme Court upheld the requirement for all healthcare facilities which receive federal funds on the 13^th.

On January 19^th, the Florida Department of Health placed the epidemiologist who led Orange County’s pandemic response on administrative leave.

The state considered charging him with a criminal offense for sending an email chiding the county’s public health employees for their 40% vaccination rate. That suspension ended on March 22, 2022.

A day later, Governor DeSantis promoted a conspiracy theory by asserting that many nurses are avoiding vaccination because “they’re trying to have families.” Numerous studies confirm that vaccination does not cause infertility; in fact, getting Covid can reduce male fertility.

Becker’s Hospital Review: DeSantis Casts aside CMS Vaccine Rule for Hospitals

B B C : T o p Florida Health Official on Leave over Support for Vaccination

Physicians Society Central FL: Orange’s State Health officer Raul Pino Reinstated After Leave over Vaccine E-mail

Twitter: DeSantis Pushes Infertility Conspiracy

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Says Healthy Kids Shouldn’t Get COVID Vaccine, Contradicting CDC

On March 7, 2022, a discussion panel moderated by Governor DeSantis recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to the risk of adolescent males developing myocarditis.

The state surgeon general noted that Florida is the only state to make such a declaration.

At least four researchers cited by the state disagreed with how Florida officials used their work.

A pediatrics professor from Vanderbilt University Medical Center who co-authored one of the papers said, “I think there is cherry-picking of sentences to support what (the state) wanted. You don’t just pick one sentence from one paper that agrees with what you think you want to say. That’s not what a health department is supposed to do.”

Each of the studies Florida officials cited recommended Covid vaccination for children as safe and effective. Florida health officials omitted that information in their updated guidelines.

The researchers asserted that vaccination remains the best way to protect children from severe Covid.

Tampa Bay Times: COVID Researchers: Florida “Cherry-Picked” Our Work in Kid Vaccine Recommendation

In contrast to the myocarditis arising from vaccination, the inflammation resulting from SARS-CoV-2 can cause life-threatening heart conditions in children, adolescents, and adults.

A study of 77,000 children found that 5–11-year-old boys were 540% more likely to develop heart inflammation after a Covid infection than after vaccination. No girls of that age who were vaccinated developed myocarditis or pericarditis:

Circulation: Myocarditis with COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines

MMWR: Cardiac Complications After SARS-CoV-2 Infection and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination—PCORnet, United States, January 2021–January 2022

Since the pandemic began, 13,000 Florida minors had required hospitalization for Covid in Florida alone as of March 17, 2022. Forty-two had died, and many of the survivors have subsequently developed serious health conditions, like diabetes.

While children are at lower risk than adults, throughout the US, Covid is one of the top ten causes of death in those aged 5–11:

Tampa Bay Times: The CDC Says Kids Should Get the COVID Vaccine—Despite Florida

Peterson-KFF: COVID-19 Leading Cause of Death Ranking

Throughout the US, children are three times as likely to have had severe disease from omicron than from previous variants.

JAMA: Acute Upper Airway Disease in Children with the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant of SARS-CoV-2—A Report form the US National COVID Cohort Collaborative

MMWR: Hospitalizations of Children Aged 5–11 Years with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19—COVID-NET, 14 States, March 2020–February 2022

At the height of the first omicron wave, unvaccinated children aged 5–11 in the US were hospitalized at three times the rate of their vaccinated peers.

After narrowing in early February, by the end of that month, 89% of Covid hospitalizations occurred in unvaccinated children aged 5–11:

The data for adolescents reveals why booster doses are recommended for that age group.

On January first, unvaccinated teens aged 12–17 were four times as likely to need hospital care than those who had been vaccinated. By the end of January, there was only a 5% difference.

For the week ending on February 26^th, 59% of Covid hospitalizations were among unvaccinated teens:

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

Compare the FDA’s announcement for eligibility in children to what Florida says it is:

FDA: FDA Authorizes Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use in Children 5 through 11 Years of Age

Florida Covid Response: Who Is Eligible for a Covid-19 Vaccine

Covid Deaths in Florida:

During June 2021–March 2022, Florida has reported only 7,096 of the 38,089 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (19%).

Exactly 3,500 Covid deaths were reported in March 2022 within the state:

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

Despite making national news for the state government’s attempt to cover up the number of deaths, nothing has changed in the Florida Department of Health’s methodology.

The Hill: Florida Reported ‘Artificial Decline’ in COVID-19 Deaths as Cases Were Surging

On June 4^th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 744 deaths.

I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

When the state receives a report of a death from an earlier week, that information is added to “Cumulative Deaths” without being noted in “Previous Week Deaths.”

It usually takes more than one week for death reports to get sent to the state.

Florida Politics: Florida Reports 1000+ Covid-19 Deaths in Past Week

Using the April 14^th cumulative data from the CDC, which showed 73,689 Florida deaths, I determined there were 141 Covid deaths reported in Florida during April 15–22, 2022.

The state reported 73,830 Cumulative Deaths.

The 141 deaths reported in the state represent a decrease of 7% from the previous week (151). Only 26 of them were counted as New Deaths in the state’s report to the CDC (18%):

Miami-Dade County reported 18 deaths, down from 22 a week earlier (an 18% decrease):

CDC: Integrated County View, Hillsborough FL

Deaths in Hillsborough County increased 11%, from 9 to 10:

According to CDC data, there had been 73,822 Covid deaths in Florida by April 21, 2022.

Florida residents at least sixteen years old became eligible for vaccination on April 1, 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infections have killed 39,641 permanent residents of the state since that date. Over half the Covid deaths in Florida have occurred since April 1, 2021.

Despite having only 6.6% of the US population, this represents 9.2% of all American Covid-19 deaths since everyone at least 16 years old qualified for vaccination:

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

Florida’s Covid death rate ranks third in the US since the delta wave began on July 1, 2021.

You can click on the web site map to see the information for each state:

Datawrapper: Covid Death Rates Since Vaccines

Nationwide, 7.7% of senior citizens who have tested positive have died.

Since the pandemic began, 1.2% of all permanent Florida residents at least 65 years old have died due to Covid-19 (1,213/100,000). That is 7.2% of people in that age group who tested positive.

It was 9.0% on December 30^th, indicating that a lot of Florida’s senior citizens have tested positive in the last few months:

CDC: Demographic Trends of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC

Here are the cumulative deaths from the April 7, 2022, Florida Report:

And those from the April 7, 2022, Florida Report:

By comparing the last two reports taken over three weeks, we can see the number and percentage of deaths in each demographic group which occurred during April 8–21, 2022.

The deviation from the expected pattern of increasing percentages of deaths with increasing age can be attributed to the large increase in the 50–59 age group. They accounted for 8.2% in my April 7, 2022 report:

Under 16 = 0 (0.0%)
16–29 = 4 (1.4%)
30–39 = 4 (1.4%)
40–49 = 15 (5.1%)
50–59 = 37 (12.7%)
60–64 = 17 (5.8%)
65+ = 215 (73.6%)

292 100%

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Florida does not report deaths by vaccination status, so I cannot determine the percentage of deaths occurring in unvaccinated people, those who received a full series, or boosted individuals.

The CDC recently updated their algorithm for calculating excess deaths in the US to include six years of data, rather than four, due to the pandemic skewing the expected numbers. It accounts for the higher than typical age of Florida’s population.

You can click on each bar on their site to see the data for that week. It takes up to eight weeks for complete reporting:

Here is another way to visualize that chart. You can see all states by clicking Percent Excess Deaths on the CDC’s site:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Florida has a higher than expected proportion of excess deaths compared to other states.

This is the total number of excess deaths throughout the pandemic, not the number per 100,000 people.

California has 70% more people than Florida yet the number of excess deaths is nearly the same:

DC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 by Jurisdiction/Cause

On December 23, 2021, Florida improved from the deepest shade of blue for the first time since I began downloading this graphic.

If you go to the CDC’s site and click on Florida, you will see on the April 23^rd update that only 17 deaths are reported for the last 7 days, despite 141 when comparing CDC cumulative deaths for April 14, 2022, with the state report during April 15–22, 2022.

The other large states have much higher numbers for the week.

Florida now ranks second for the highest proportion of Covid deaths among the six largest states: CA (225); TX (298); FL (343); NY (247); PA (348); IL (298):

CDC: United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing by State and Territory

Dec 23, 2021 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Covid Cases in Florida:

With the rise in at-home testing, since the omicron wave began, it is important to know that official confirmed cases are likely to be significantly undercounted.

For the week ending on April 14, 2022, the CDC reported 15,678 confirmed Covid cases.

A week ago, I compared CDC data to the previous week’s state data to estimate 15,678 new cases. That turned out to be an overestimate of 167 cases (0.4% for the two-week period).

On April 21^st, Florida reported 5,899,188 cumulative Covid cases. Of those 20,860 were new, an increase of 33% from the previous week:

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

The omicron wave began in Miami-Dade County, with the rest of the state lagging a few weeks behind.

On March 18^th, the county county reported 1,725 cases for the week. Another 38% increase gives us a 255% rise in weekly cases in five weeks (6,126):

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Dr. Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist from the University of South Florida, posts very helpful county-level case data.

For Miami-Dade County, he shows a 104% rise compared to two weeks earlier—from 3,019 to 6,170—not the 38% increase from a week ago:

Meanwhile, data from the state report gives us no information about the amount of change:

CDC: Integrated County View, Hillsborough FL

In Hillsborough County, cases rose 16% last week to 1055:

To evaluate the trend in Covid infections among children during the week of April 15–22, 2022, we can use the data from two weeks ago.

During the week of April 51–22, 2022, 662 children under five tested positive in Florida, an increase of 51% over the previous week (439) and 78% more than in the last report two weeks ago.

Among those 5–19, 2,527 tested positive, 35% more than the prior week (1,871) and 150% more than two weeks ago.

In total, 3,189 Florida residents under the age of twenty tested positive, an increase of 38% from a week before (2,310):

April 14, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Children aged 5+ are eligible for a series of two Pfizer doses.

Booster shots are approved for anyone at least 12 years old who had a second shot of an mRNA vaccine over five months ago or got the Johnson & Johnson vaccine two months ago.

Those aged 12–17 are limited to the Pfizer vaccine as a booster.

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots

This school year began on August 10^th, and the Hillsborough County School District instituted a mandatory mask mandate on August 18^th. They ended it on October 15^th.

Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings and now leaves the decision about quarantining after a close contact at school to the child’s parents.

HCSD: Covid FrequentlyAsked Questions

A study of schools with more than 1.1 million students and 157,000 staff members determined a 72% drop of in-school Covid transmission occurred with mandatory mask policies instead of optional or partial masking.

NIH: Mandatory Masking in Schools Reduced COVID-19 Cases During Delta Surge

The Hillsborough County School District published a notice effective January 31, 2022:

“The Florida Department of Health has shifted COVID-19 case investigation focus to: ‘high-congregate settings’ (nursing homes/skilled nursing/assisted living facilities, correctional facilities, homeless shelters, group homes) at high risk for secondary transmission or poor health outcomes among their residents as a result of COVID-19 infection. Public schools and daycare settings are not considered congregate settings.”

During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.

H i l l sborough County School District: COVID-19 Student Protocol

Jan 27, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening

On January 26^th, the Orange County School District announced that the state will no longer permit excused absences for Covid effective January 31^st. Children who quarantine after a Covid exposure will be considered truant:

Orange County School District: Unexcused Absences for Covid

In the Hillsborough County School District, as of April 21, 2022, there had been 28,291 cases during this school year.

There were 76 cases reported on April 15–19, 2022, 4% more than during the previous week (73):

My daughters’ high school has had 144 cases, with none of those in the last eight weeks. The middle school has had 147; with one two weeks ago. Our elementary school has had 184, with none occurring in the last seven weeks. None had been reported for several weeks before the fall semester ended.

Hillsborough County Public Schools Covid Dashboard

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

Florida Covid Testing:

The shift to home-based testing with the first omicron wave is highly likely to result in an under-reporting of Covid cases.

The CDC advises those with a positive at-home test to report the results to their doctor.

CDC: Self Testing at Home or Anywhere

On January 3, 2022, the Florida Surgeon General decried the “testing psychology” which seeks to identify all Covid cases to slow the rate of community transmission.

Amidst the scandal which erupted on January 7^th concerning the 1,000,000 expired antigen tests, Florida’s web site shifted its focus to testing. Specifically, that people who are not high-risk should avoid it.

On January 6^th, the governor announced the state was shipping 1,000,000 test kits to long-term care and nursing facilities:

T h e Hill: Florida Surgeon General Blasts “Testing Psychology” around COVID-19

The Hill: DeSantis Administration Says It Let a Million COVID-19 Tests Expire in Florida Warehouse

The Hill: Florida Sending 1 Million Free COVID-19 Tests to Elderly Communities

On February 7^th, the Florida Department of Health officially reprimanded two testing companies which failed to report the results of 230,000 Covid tests taken during December and January.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Contractors Didn’t Report 230,000 COVID Tests on Time During Omicron Wave

Every household in the US is eligible to receive 2 shipments of 4 free Covid tests from the federal government at Covid.gov.

Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate less than 5% for two weeks before reopening.

JHU: COVID-19 Testing: Understanding the “Percent Positive”

According to the state report, Florida did not cross the 5% threshold until April 9–21, with a 12% rise to an average positivity rate of 6.1%:

CDC: Florida Daily Covid Testing

According to data which the state reported to the CDC, the number of tests reported in Florida rose slightly last week.

Positivity rates climbed steadily from 7.27% on the 15^th to 8.70% on the 21^st:

We can use Dr. Salemi county-level positivity rates from April 1–7 as our baseline to compare with the data from April 15–22. He does not have access to that information for April 8–14, 2022.

Overall, they range from 1.2–13.3%. Three weeks ago, four counties had positivity rates above 5%. Now over half of them do:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Miami-Dade County’s positivity rate increased by 14%, from 9.1% to 10.4%. There were likely 108% more cases than were reported (12,742), despite a 45% rise in the number of tests taken:

CDC: Integrated County View, Hillsborough FL

Hillsborough County’s positivity rate rose from 3.9% to 5.4%:

Covid Therapeutics in FL:

Until January 8^th, the state continued to emphasize monoclonal antibody treatment as the focus of the Covid-19 Response web site:

Mutations which have resulted in the omicron variant render ineffective almost all the monoclonal antibodies currently in use, including the antibody combination used in Regeneron against the delta variant (imdevimab and casirivimab).

In the US, 100% of cases were due to the omicron strains by January 29, 2022:

NEJM: Efficacy of Antibodies and Antiviral Drugs Against Covid-19 Omicron Variant

CDC: Variant Proportions

For the week ending January 8^th, 97% of sequenced cases in the region which includes Florida were omicron:

CDC: Variant Proportions

Jan 13, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

At that time, there was only one monoclonal antibody produced in the US which could attach to circulating omicron BA.1 particles.

Sotrovimab works against the original omicron variant and omicron BA.1 at a dosage three times that required to neutralize the delta variant.

NEJM: Efficacy of Antibodies and Antiviral Drugs Against Covid-19 Omicron Variant

During the first week of January 2022, hospitals in Florida used 140 of the state’s stockpile of 4,400 Sotrovimab doses, in contrast to over 2,700 doses of the ineffective Regeneron monoclonal antibody.

On January 18^th, the state announced the opening of additional monoclonal antibody infusion centers to distribute what remained of the 15,000 additional doses of Regeneron secured on January 7^th.

T a m p a B a y T i m e s : Omicron Undermines Florida’s Strategy to Combat C oronavirus: Gov. Ron DeSantis Continues to Tout Monoclonal Antibody Therapies, but New Evidence Shows Their Effectiveness Against COVID-19 Is Waning

Florida Health: Florida to Open Additional Monoclonal Antibody Therapy Treatment Sites

A week later, the FDA revised its Emergency Use Authorizations for the two components of Regeneron, prohibiting their use against the omicron variant. The federal government stopped shipping those monoclonal antibodies.

Why the state continues to emphasize this is mystifying: