Florida Covid Statistics: What Is Really Happening, March 10, 2022

This graphic predates the omicron variant, which is even more severe for children.

Circulation: Myocarditis with COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines

I have also published an omicron variant post, archived delta variant information, and archived general Covid-19 information.

On March 7, 2022, after a panel discussion, the FL Surgeon General recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to myocarditis. He noted only Florida has made such a declaration.

Researchers cited by the panel accused the state of using single sentences the panelists agreed with and ignoring their strong recommendations to vaccinate children. Florida claims the FDA recommends vaccination for ages 12+. Instead, it is 5+.

Covid infection is six times as likely to cause myocarditis compared to vaccination, and it tends to be more severe when viral-induced.

During the omicron wave, unvaccinated children 5–11 were 2–3 times as likely to need hospitalization. A drop from hospitalization 4 times as likely in unvaccinated children aged 12–17 to almost even shows their need for boosters.

13,000 Florida minors have been hospitalized for Covid and 42 have died.

Beginning in June 2021, Florida removed all archived Covid data from their web site. Once a week, they replace the statistics from the previous week with a new report. That makes it difficult for anyone who has not saved the old data to see the actual numbers of cases and deaths. No hospitalization data is included. On the Florida Department of Health web site, you can locate influenza records from 2001 but not Covid data from February 17, 2022.

For the first time since October, my computer will download the official Florida Covid report. While it’s no longer banned as a security risk, it’s still on an unsecure connection. The overall Covid response site has a secure one.

FL Covid Deaths:

As of March 10, 2022, FL has claimed 71,860 cumulative Covid deaths.
On June 4, 2021, the state removed 744 deaths among non-permanent residents and stopped reporting them.
Weekly deaths among permanent residents reported by FL decreased by 28% to 863.
The state is claiming only 10% of them as “New Deaths” (87)
776 deaths reported during March 4–10 were not included in the March 10^th New Deaths.
During June 2021–February 2022, Florida has reported only 6,760 of the 34,589 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (20%).
Hillsborough County had 60 deaths, a 42% weekly decrease from 103.
77% percent of deaths reported in Florida last week were among senior citizens.
FL has 9.3% of US deaths when vaccinations were available to all over 15 (6.6% US population).
Since July 1, 2020 FL has the third worst death rate in the US.
Over half of Florida’s Covid deaths have occurred since everyone over 15 became eligible for vaccination.
CA has 70% more people than Florida, yet almost the same number of excess deaths.
Among the 6 largest states, the Florida death rate is below only Pennsylvania’s.
FL does not report Covid deaths stratified by vaccination status.

FL Covid Vaccinations:

Florida claims a 74% vaccination rate.
60% of permanent Florida residents have at least completed a vaccine series.
23% have booster shots, an important precaution against the omicron variant.
Boosters prevented 84% of omicron hospitalizations among people aged 18–49; 92% for ages 50–64; and 94% for senior citizens.
The state does not report cases or deaths by vaccination status.
On 1-14-22, the governor refused to enforce the federal mandate for healthcare workers upheld by the Supreme Court a day earlier.
On 1-19-22, the state put Orange County’s epidemiologist on leave for chiding his employees’ 40% vaccination rate.
On 1-15-22 the governor said many nurses avoid vaccination due to “trying to have families.” Numerous studies confirm vaccination does not cause infertility.

Florida Covid Testing and Prevention:

On 1-4-22, FL’s Surgeon General decried “testing psychology” to identify all cases.
On 1-6-22, FL’s Agriculture Secretary revealed 1,000,000 expired antigen tests.
On 1-8-22, FL’s web site told those not at high risk of severe cases to avoid testing.
On 1-9-22, the governor announced 1,000,000 tests for long-term care and nursing homes
On 2-7-22, the state reprimanded two companies which failed to report 230,000 test results from December and January until that week.
With a positivity rate below 5%, testing is now adequate to capture mild and asymptomatic cases. It is currently 3.3%.
On 3-2-22 Governor DeSantis chided a group of teens in a county with a high alert level and told them to remove their face masks. He then used that episode to raise campaign funds. Under those conditions, the CDC recommends that everyone wear masks indoors

Florida Covid Cases:

On the March 10^th report, Florida reported 5,824,728 cumulative cases among permanent residents.
On June 4^th, the state removed all data from anyone who is not a permanent resident and stopped reporting it. This deleted 43,535 cases.
10,288 cases were reported as new, a 27% decrease from the prior week.
The state over-reported 77 cases, 1% of the total.
Florida reported cumulative cases among permanent residents. Of those, 10,288 were reported as new, a 27% decrease from the prior week (14,148). Subtracting the new number from the cumulative one should give us the cumulative number from the prior week: 5,814,440.
FL began a decline eight weeks ago. New cases are 7% higher than in mid-November.
A 2.4% new case positivity rate means there is enough testing to capture mild and asymptomatic cases. This was a 27% decrease compared to last week.
Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate <5% for 2 weeks before reopening. We have now met that goal on a state-wide level.
At the county level, positivity rates range from 0%–15.1%.
1,494 Florida residents under 20 tested positive, a decrease of 29% from last week.
Reported cases in the Hillsborough County School District fell 67% to 27 last week.
Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings.
Parents decide about quarantining after a close contact at school.
On 1-31-22, FL shifted its focus to “high congregate settings,” not schools and day cares.
During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.
On 1-31-22, FL students absent due to Covid exposure are truant per Orange County

Florida Covid Treatment:

Omicron mutations render ineffective almost all monoclonal antibodies previously in use.
100% of FL cases are due to that viral strain; 99.7%, 7 weeks ago; 92%, 9 weeks ago.
The rate of increase for the BA.2 subvariant is significantly slower than for previous omicron variants. During February 27–March 5, BA.2 increased from 4.5% to 7.0% in the region which includes Florida.
Sotrovimab works against the omicron BA.1 variant at a dosage 3x more than for delta. It is 27 times less effective for omicron BA.2.
Eight weeks ago, Florida used 140 of its 4,400 Sotrovimab doses and 2,700 of Regeneron.
On 1-18-22, FL opened more infusion centers to distribute 15,000 doses of Regeneron.
The FDA revised its EUA for Regeneron on 1-24-22, prohibiting its use against omicron.
DeSantis objected to no shipments; all FL antibody infusion centers closed on 1-25-22.
A new monoclonal antibody called bebtelovimab is effective against omicron BA.2 and other omicron variants. It began shipping to Florida three weeks ago.
Here is the most recent federal allocation of 32,000 Covid-specific treatments to Florida: 2,835 post-exposure Bebtelovimab (for all omicron types); 3,012 post-exposure Sotrovimab for omicron variants except for BA.2; 6,480 of the oral Paxlovid; 6,696 of the less-effective oral Molnupiravir; and 12,912 of the Covid pre-exposure Evusheld
On 1-8-21, the FDA issued an Evusheld EUA for those with severe immunosuppression.
On 2-25-22, the dosage doubled due to BA.2. Prior recipients need an additional shot.
People with certain cancers or organ transplants receive the highest priority.
DeSantis announced it on 12-17-21, when Covid was raging through Miami-Dade County.
First shipments only to a small private fee-based clinic in Broward County on 12-24-21.
People flew from out of state to receive it at the iCare Clinic.
The large transplant hospital in Miami was to receive it four weeks later.
During Jan 24–30, 2022 the federal government sent 32,000 outpatient treatments.
During Mar 7–13, 2022, the federal government is sending enough highly effective doses to treat 19,100 Floridians.

Florida Covid Hospitalizations:

You won’t find any hospitalization info on Florida’s Weekly Reports since 6-24-21.
Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Dept of Health and Human Services.
Florida fell to 28^th in rank among states for adults, with a 27% drop in hospitalizations.
For August 1, 2020– March 10, 2022, 8.9% of all US Covid hospitalizations were in FL (6.6% of US population). That includes over 407,865 people.
For March 4–10, 2022, there were 218 admissions/day (1,523), 32% less in a week.
On March 10^th, there were 1.01 new admissions/100,000 Floridians; 1.46 the week before.
Hospitalizations declined for every age group, ranging from 18% for ages for ages 40–49 to 39% for ages 18–29.
Compared to delta, omicron admissions are higher for younger than 30 and older than 69.
Last week, pediatric admissions declined by 6%, compared to 51% two weeks ago.
The rank of pediatric hospitalizations fell from 27^thto 30^th, with a 32% decline.
45% more adults in hospital with Covid on March 11^th,compared to Dec 3^rd.
Percentage of people in the hospital who required care in the ICU fell slightly to 18%.
32 children were in Florida hospitals, a drop of 30; however, admissions were the same as a week ago at 33/day.
Children had experienced a 203% rise during the last week of December.
65% more pediatric hospitalizations than on Dec 3^rd.
One in 7 admissions were for children, up from one in 10 a week ago.
On 3-1-22, 79% of hospital beds in Florida were full; 3% used by Covid patients.
Covid patients accounted for 1,810 of them, 25% fewer patients than a week earlier.
4% of ICU beds were used by 256 Covid patients, 30% fewer than the previous week.
Overall, 75% of ICU beds are occupied in the state, down from 76%.
1/3 are admitted for Covid diagnosis; 1/3 for Covid worsening an underlying condition; and one-third for reasons unrelated to their viral infection.

Until January 1, 2022, Florida was the only state in the US which was releasing statistics on a weekly basis. Tennessee has now switched to that schedule. Information available in Florida’s reports is far more limited than what the state formerly provided.

Since October 14, 2021, I have made many attempts to access the FL Dept of Health Weekly Report. However, my browser would not download it until today due to a potential security risk:

It is still unsecure, while the main Florida Covid Response site has a secure connection:

Florida Covid-19 Response

T B T : W h y D o e s n ‘t F l o r i d a T r u s t I t s R e s i d e n t s with Basic COVID Information?

On October 18^th, I followed the Dept of Health’s recommendation to contact their COVID Data Analytics section, then went outside. When I returned, I had to do a major recovery process following an unauthorized attempt to access my hard drive. I still have not received a response from the FL COVID Data Analytics group. Even the main site for the Florida Dept of Health appears on an unsecure connection: www.floridahealth.gov.

Meanwhile faculty at the University of Florida charge that they have felt external pressure from the highest levels of state government to delete data related to their Covid research. They also encountered “barriers to accessing and analyzing” data and “barriers to publication of scientific research which inhibited the ability of faculty to contribute scientific findings during a world-wide pandemic.”

On January 21, 2022, a federal judge sided with the plaintiffs in a 74-page ruling. He asserted the University of Florida was “willing to suffer threats to its accreditation, congressional inquiries, unrelenting bad press, an all-but-certain hit to its rankings, and the substantial monetary cost of hiring an experienced D.C. firm to defend its policy. The only thing UF will not do, it seems, is amend its policy to make clear that it will never consider viewpoint in denying a request to testify.” As in The Emperor’s New Clothes, the emperor’s lords, “fearing the loss of their jobs and the Emperor’s good grace, enabled the charade by praising the Emperor’s fine suit.”

The Hill: University of Florida Initiates Investigation into Alleged Destruction of COVID-19 Research Data

Tampa Bay Times: Federal Judge Orders Injunction to UF’s Conflict of Interest Policy

For the first time in six months, I’m able to access the pdf for the weekly summary via the Florida Dept of Health site:

Florida Covid-19 Response

Here is some of the data from March 4–10, 2022:

New cases = 10,288; Cumulative cases = 5,824,728
Positivity rate = 2.4%
New deaths = 87; Cumulative deaths = 71,860
Vaccination rate = 74%
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 8,222,070
Total booster doses: 5,078,229

This data from February 25–March 3, 2022, came from Dr. Salemi’s archives. During October 14, 2021–March 11, 2022, my browser would not download the FL Dept of Health Weekly Report, citing it as a security risk. Nevertheless, you would not find any archived Covid information on the FL Dept of Health site:

Here is some of the data from February 25–March 3, 2022:

New cases = 14,148; Cumulative cases = 5,814,517
Positivity rate = 3.3%
New deaths = 99; Cumulative deaths = 70,997
Vaccination rate = 74%
Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 8,226,833
Total booster doses: 5,057,173

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Note that archived data on influenza statistics is readily available on the FL Dept of Health web site: Florida Influenza Surveillance Reports 2001–2022

On February 25, 2022, the CDC updated their masking guidelines based upon a combination of Covid hospital admissions and utilization as well as the number of new cases in a county. They range from low (green) through medium (yellow) to high risk (orange). Rural areas without hospital services may look better than they are.

You can click on the hyperlink below this for more specific information and the interactive map. This is the situation as of March 10, 2022. Counties near Tallahassee remain high-risk; those in the Tampa area are reduced to medium:

In areas of high alert, the CDC advises everyone to wear a high-quality tight-fitting mask indoors.

CDC: COVID-19 Community Levels

Governor DeSantis visited Hillsborough County on March 2, 2022. As he approached a group of masked high school students, he said, “You do not have to wear those masks. I mean, please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything and we’ve gotta stop with this COVID theater. So, if you want to wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”

He then used that outburst to raise campaign funds.

WFLA: ‘This Is Ridiculous’: DeSantis Scolds Students for Wearing Face Masks During USF Visit

The Hill: DeSantis Fundraises off Video of Him Chiding Students for Wearing Masks

Hillsborough County had a high alert level for Covid before and after that date:

Feb 25, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Florida Covid Vaccinations:

The vaccination rate reported by the state remained at 74%. This figure represents only those eligible for vaccination and includes partially vaccinated people. Florida’s population is currently 21,975,117, so 60% have at least completed a vaccination series. People who receive a booster shot are removed from the Series Completed Category and added to the Additional Dose Category:

Twenty-three percent of Floridians have received a booster shot, a dose considered extremely important for providing protection against the omicron variant. Since I created this chart, researchers have discovered that booster efficacy begins to wane at ten weeks:

Efficacy at Peak of Protection: Booster Efficacy Wanes 15% to 20% After Ten Weeks

For all adults in the US, the CDC has added people who received booster shots as a separate category.

For those 18–49 years old during January 23–29, 2022, unvaccinated people were hospitalized at a rate of 23.3/100,000. A primary vaccine course prevented 67% of expected hospitalizations. Adding a booster shot increased the protection to 84%:

Unvaccinated people aged 50–64 were hospitalized at a rate of 72.4/100,000. Those who finished a vaccine series had 73% fewer hospitalizations than expected. A booster dose prevented 92% of hospitalizations:

Results for that same week for senior citizens showed that unvaccinated individuals required hospital care at a rate of 305.6/100,000. Completing a vaccine series reduced the likelihood of needing hospitalization by 77%. Adding a booster prevented 94% of hospitalizations which would have occurred without vaccination:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

UK Government: Monitoring Reports of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination: Data on the Real-World Efficacy of the COVID-19 Vaccines

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

On January 14, 2022, Governor DeSantis’s office announced it would not enforce the federal government’s vaccine mandate for healthcare workers. The US Supreme Court upheld the requirement for all healthcare facilities which receive federal funds on the 13^th.

On January 19^th, the Florida Department of Health placed the epidemiologist who led Orange County’s pandemic response on administrative leave. He may be charged with a criminal offense for sending an email chiding the county’s public health employees for their 40% vaccination rate. That suspension appears to still be in force.

A day later, Governor DeSantis promoted a conspiracy theory by asserting that many nurses are avoiding vaccination because “they’re trying to have families.” Numerous studies confirm that vaccination does not cause infertility; in fact, getting Covid can reduce male fertility.

Becker’s Hospital Review: DeSantis Casts aside CMS Vaccine Rule for Hospitals

B B C : T o p Florida Health Official on Leave over Support for Vaccination

Twitter: DeSantis Pushes Infertility Conspiracy

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

On March 7, 2022, a discussion panel moderated by Governor DeSantis recommended against Covid vaccination for healthy children due to the risk of adolescent males developing myocarditis. The state surgeon general noted that Florida is the only state to make such a declaration.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Says Healthy Kids Shouldn’t Get COVID Vaccine, Contradicting CDC

At least four researchers cited by the state disagreed with how Florida officials used their work. A pediatrics professor from Vanderbilt University Medical Center who co-authored one of the papers said, “I think there is cherry-picking of sentences to support what (the state) wanted. You don’t just pick one sentence from one paper that agrees with what you think you want to say. That’s not what a health department is supposed to do.”

Each of the studies Florida officials cited recommended Covid vaccination for children as safe and effective. Florida health officials omitted that in their updated guidelines. The researchers asserted that vaccination remains the best way to protect children from severe Covid.

Tampa Bay Times: COVID Researchers: Florida “Cherry-Picked” Our Work in Kid Vaccine Recommendation

In contrast to the myocarditis arising from vaccination, the inflammation resulting from SARS-CoV-2 can cause life-threatening heart conditions in children, adolescents, and adults:

This graphic predates the omicron variant, which is even more severe for children.

Circulation: Myocarditis with COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines

Young men are six times as likely to develop myocarditis from a Covid infection than from vaccination, at a rate of 450 per million. Cardiac injury from the virus tends to be more severe than vaccine-induced myocarditis.

MedR_xiv: Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis

Circulation: Striking Similarities of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children and a Myocarditis-Like Syndrome in Adults

Since the pandemic began, 13,000 Florida minors have required hospitalization for Covid in Florida alone. Forty-two have died, and many of the survivors have subsequently developed serious health conditions, like diabetes. While children are at lower risk than adults, throughout the US, Covid is one of the top ten causes of death in those aged 5–11.

Tampa Bay Times: The CDC Says Kids Should Get the COVID Vaccine—Despite Florida

At the height of the omicron wave, unvaccinated children aged 5–11 in the US were hospitalized at three times the rate of their vaccinated peers. By the end of January, that gap narrowed to two times:

The data for adolescents reveals why booster doses are recommended for that age group. On January first, unvaccinated teens aged 12–17 were four times as likely to need hospital care than those who had been vaccinated. By the end of January, there was only a 5% difference:

CDC: Rates of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations by Vaccination Status

Compare the FDA’s announcement for eligibility in children to what Florida says it is:

FDA: FDA Authorizes Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Emergency Use in Children 5 through 11 Years of Age

Florida Covid Response: Who Is Eligible for a Covid-19 Vaccine

Covid Deaths in Florida:

During June 2021–February 2022, Florida has reported only 6,760 of the 34,589 Covid deaths among permanent residents as “New Deaths” (20%):

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Despite making national news for the state government’s attempt to cover up the number of deaths, nothing has changed in the Florida Department of Health’s methodology.

The Hill: Florida Reported ‘Artificial Decline’ in COVID-19 Deaths as Cases Were Surging

On June 4^th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 744 deaths. I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

Subtracting the March 10^th New Deaths from the Cumulative Deaths should give us the number of March 10^th Cumulative Deaths. However, doing that reveals 776 deaths which were not included in the March 10^th New Deaths.

There was a total of 863 deaths reported in Florida during that week. Yet only 10% of deaths (87) are reflected clearly on the March 10^th report. This is a 28% decrease from last week (1,207):

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

When the state receives a report of a death from an earlier week, that information is added to “Cumulative Deaths” without being noted in “Previous Week Deaths.” It usually takes more than one week for death reports to get sent to the state.

Unless someone knows to compare the two data sets from both weeks, that is not apparent. By removing data from March 3^rd and adding data from March 10^th on the state’s web site simultaneously, only people who have saved the older data can see what they are doing. It looks like the death rate is 91% better than it is.

Florida Politics: Florida Reports 1000+ Covid-19 Deaths in Past Week

During March 4^th–10^th, Hillsborough County had 60 deaths reported to the CDC, a decrease of 42% from the prior week (103):

CDC: Integrated County View, Hillsborough FL

Florida residents at least sixteen years old became eligible for vaccination on April 1, 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infections have killed 37,680 permanent residents of the state since that date to March 10, 2022. Over half the Covid deaths in Florida have occurred since then. Despite having only 6.6% of the US population, this represents 9.3% of all American Covid-19 deaths since everyone at least 16 years old qualified for vaccination:

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

Florida’s Covid death rate ranks third in the US since the delta wave began on July 1, 2021. You can click on the web site map to see the information for each state:

Datawrapper: Covid Death Rates Since Vaccines

Nationwide, 8.3% of senior citizens who have tested positive have died. Since the pandemic began, 1.2% of all permanent Florida residents at least 65 years old have died due to Covid-19 (1,180/100,000). That is 7.2% of people in that age group who tested positive.

It was 9.0% on December 30^th, indicating that a lot of Florida’s senior citizens have tested positive in the last two months:

By comparing the last two weeks, we can see the number and percentage of deaths in each demographic group which occurred during February 25–March 3, 2022. This week, Florida returned to the expected pattern of increasing percentages of deaths with increasing age:

Under 16 = 0 (0.0%)
16–29 = 5 (0.6%)
30–39 = 15 (1.7%)
40–49 = 21 (2.4%)
50–59 = 72 (8.3%)
60–64 = 85 (9.8%)
65+ = 665 (77.0%)

863 100%

Florida does not report deaths by vaccination status, so I cannot determine the percentage of deaths occurring in unvaccinated people, those who received a full series, or boosted individuals.

CDC: Demographic Trends of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

The CDC recently updated their algorithm for calculating excess deaths in the US to include six years of data, rather than four, due to the pandemic skewing the expected numbers. It accounts for the higher than typical age of Florida’s population.

You can click on each bar on their site to see the data for that week. It takes up to eight weeks for complete reporting:

Here is another way to visualize that chart. You can see all states by clicking Percent Excess Deaths on the CDC’s site:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Florida has a higher than expected proportion of excess deaths compared to other states. This is the total number of excess deaths throughout the pandemic, not the number per 100,000 people. California has 70% more people than Florida yet the number of excess deaths is nearly the same:

DC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 by Jurisdiction/Cause

Nine weeks ago, Florida improved from the deepest shade of blue for the first time since I began downloading this graphic. If you go to the CDC’s site and click on Florida, you will see on the March 11^th update that only 87 deaths are reported for the last 7 days, despite 863 in the state report during March 4–10, 2022. The other large states have much higher numbers for the week.

Florida now ranks second for the highest proportion of Covid deaths among the six largest states: CA (218); TX (292); FL (334); NY (245); PA (341); IL (294):

CDC: United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing by State and Territory

Covid Cases in Florida:

On the March 10^th report, Florida reported 5,824,728 cumulative cases among permanent residents. Of those, 10,288 were reported as new, a 27% decrease from the prior week (14,148). Subtracting the new number from the cumulative one should give us the cumulative number from the prior week: 5,814,440.

However, the March 3^rd report shows a cumulative number of 5,814,517. This week, the state is over-reporting 77 cases, 1% of the total:

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

On June 4^th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 43,535 cases. I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

Following six weeks of large increases since the omicron variant was first detected, Florida began a downward trajectory eight weeks ago. Our number of new cases is only 7% higher than in mid-November (9,642 reported on 11-19-21).

Public health officials recommend maintaining a positivity rate less than 5% for two weeks before reopening. As of this week, we have now reached that goal on a state-wide level. A new case positivity rate of 2.4% means there is enough testing to capture mild and asymptomatic cases. It fell 27% in the past week:

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Here are a few of the FL Dept of Health county positivity rates. Hillsborough County’s fell 28%, from 4.0% to 2.9%. The state average also dropped by 41%, from 5.6% to 3.3%. That means there is enough testing to detect mild and asymptomatic cases. We cannot tell from the state report that the number of cases in Hillsborough County decreased by 26% in the past week (from 851 to 628):

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

Dr. Jason Salemi, a professor from the University of South Florida, has been compiling data from the state since May 28^th, when the reporting drastically changed. His graphic quickly reveals that county level positivity rates for the week beginning on March 4^thranged from 0%–15.1%:

JHU: COVID-19 Testing: Understanding the “Percent Positive”

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Dr. Salemi‘s county-level case data is quite helpful. Note that the date reflects the beginning of the week. It indicates that Hillsborough County’s case rate fell 26%, from 56/100,000 people to 42/100,000 during March 4–10, 2022. On his site, you can click on the maps for detailed information on each county:

He also lists the data for each week since May 28, 2021, when Florida deleted its daily dashboard. I have excluded some weeks to fit the most recent data into the screenshot. The 26% decrease in Hillsborough County cases this week is evident here:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

CDC: COVID-19 Integrated County View, Hillsborough County FL

During the week of March 4–10, 2022, 279 children under five tested positive in Florida, a decrease of 36% over the previous week (434). Among those 5–19, 1,215 tested positive, 28% fewer than the prior week (1,680). In total, 1,494 Florida residents under the age of twenty tested positive, a decrease of 29% from the week before (2,114):

Children aged 5+ are eligible for a series of two Pfizer doses. Booster shots are approved for anyone at least 12 years old who had a second shot of an mRNA vaccine over five months ago or got the Johnson & Johnson vaccine two months ago. Those aged 12–17 are limited to the Pfizer vaccine.

Florida Covid-19 Response

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots

This school year began on August 10^th, and the Hillsborough County School District instituted a mandatory mask mandate on August 18^th. They ended it on October 15^th. Florida law prohibits requiring masks in non-medical settings and now leaves the decision about quarantining after a close contact at school to the child’s parents.

HCSD: Covid FrequentlyAsked Questions

A study of schools with more than 1.1 million students and 157,000 staff members determined a 72% drop of in-school Covid transmission occurred with mandatory mask policies instead of optional or partial masking.

NIH: Mandatory Masking in Schools Reduced COVID-19 Cases During Delta Surge

The Hillsborough County School District published a notice effective January 31, 2022:

“The Florida Department of Health has shifted COVID-19 case investigation focus to: ‘high-congregate settings’ (nursing homes/skilled nursing/assisted living facilities, correctional facilities, homeless shelters, group homes) at high risk for secondary transmission or poor health outcomes among their residents as a result of COVID-19 infection. Public schools and daycare settings are not considered congregate settings.”

During the week leading up to that announcement 38,629 school-aged children in Florida had tested positive.

H i l l sborough County School District: COVID-19 Student Protocol

Jan 27, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening

On January 26^th, the Orange County School District announced that the state will no longer permit excused absences for Covid effective January 31^st. Children who quarantine after a Covid exposure will be considered truant:

Orange County School District: Unexcused Absences for Covid

In the Hillsborough County School District, as of March 8, 2022, there have been 28,040 cases during this school year. The 27 cases reported during March 4–10, 2022 constitute a 67% decrease from the previous week (81 during February 18–24, 2022):

My daughters’ high school has had 144 cases and our middle school has had 146, with none of those in the last four weeks. Our elementary school has had 184, with 1 occurring three weeks ago. None had been reported for several weeks before the fall semester ended.

Hillsborough County Public Schools Covid Dashboard

Covid Therapeutics in FL:

Until January 8^th, the state continued to emphasize monoclonal antibody treatment as the focus of the Covid-19 Response web site. Mutations which have resulted in the omicron variant render ineffective almost all the monoclonal antibodies currently in use, including the antibody combination used in Regeneron against the delta variant (imdevimab and casirivimab).

In the US, 100% of cases are now due to the omicron strain. Six weeks ago, 98% were omicron:

Florida Covid-19 Response

CDC: Variant Proportions

January 6, 2022 Florida Statistics: What Is Really Happening?

There was only one monoclonal antibody produced in the US which can attach to circulating omicron BA.1 particles. Sotrovimab works against the original omicron variant at a dosage three times that required to neutralize the delta variant and is given in two injections at the same visit.

With the sudden shift in predominating strains, it is likely to be very difficult even for people at the highest risk to access the limited supply of monoclonal antibody treatment for an omicron infection.

Covid-19: The Omicron Variant

NEJM: Efficacy of Antibodies and Antiviral Drugs Against Covid-19 Omicron Variant

Six weeks ago, hospitals in Florida used 140 of the state’s stockpile of 4,400 Sotrovimab doses, in contrast to over 2,700 doses of the ineffective Regeneron monoclonal antibody.

On January 18^th, the state announced the opening of additional monoclonal antibody infusion centers to distribute what remained of the 15,000 additional doses of Regeneron secured on January 7^th.

T a m p a B a y T i m e s : Omicron Undermines Florida’s Strategy to Combat C oronavirus: Gov. Ron DeSantis Continues to Tout Monoclonal Antibody Therapies, but New Evidence Shows Their Effectiveness Against COVID-19 Is Waning

Florida Health: Florida to Open Additional Monoclonal Antibody Therapy Treatment Sites

A week later, the FDA revised its Emergency Use Authorizations for the two components of Regeneron, prohibiting their use against the omicron variant. The federal government stopped shipping those monoclonal antibodies.

Governor DeSantis accused the Biden Administration of having no clinical evidence, despite the manufacturers of both antibodies noting they are now ineffective:

F D A : Coronoavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Limits Use of Certain Monoclonal Antibodies to Treat COVID-19 Due to the Omicron Variant

Florida Covid-19 Response

Daniel Dale: DeSantis vs Regeneron and Lilly

Abcellera: Statement on the Neutralization Activity of Its Monoclonal Antibody Therapies Against the Omicron Variant of Concern

Ron DeSantis: Governor DeSantis Condemns Biden Administration’s Haphazard Decision to Revoke Authorization of Lifesaving Monoclonal Antibody Treatments

Currently, there is some controversy over whether Sotrovimab works against the omicron BA.2 subvariant. One study deems it 27 times less effective against BA.2 than for BA.1.

Does Any Monoclonal Antibody Work Against BA.2?—Pre-print Lab Data Cast Doubt on the One Remaining Effective Antibody Treatment

BioR_xiv: Antibody Evasion Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Sublineages

MedPage: COVID Antivirals Appear to Hold Up Against BA.2—In Lab Study, Monoclonal Antibodies Required Much Higher Concentrations Versus Omicron Subvariant

In this map, purple represents the original omicron variant while pink shows the amount of omicron BA.2. During February 27–March 5, the percentage of BA.2 increased from 4.5% to 7.0% in the region which includes Florida:

CDC: Variant Proportions

A clinical trial shows that a different monoclonal antibody called Bebtelovimab neutralizes omicron BA.1 and omicron BA.2. Accordingly, on February 10, 2022, the US Department of Health and Human Services announced the purchase of enough to treat 600,000 people.

Here is the most recent federal allocation of 32,000 Covid-specific treatments to Florida:

2,835 post-exposure Bebtelovimab (for all omicron types)

3,012 post-exposure Sotrovimab for omicron variants except for BA.2

6,480 of the oral Paxlovid; 6,696 of the less-effective oral Molnupiravir

12,912 of the Covid pre-exposure Evusheld:

FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes New Monoclonal Antibody for Treatment of COVID-19 that Retains Activity Against Omicron Variant

HHS: Secretary Becerra Announces HHS Purchase of 600,000 Treatment Courses of New Monoclonal Antibody that Works Against Omicron

Public Health Emergency: State/Territory-Coordinated Weekly Distribution of COVID-19 Therapeutics

On December 8, 2021, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Evusheld, a monoclonal antibody developed to protect people over the age of 12 with severe immunosuppression against infection. Due to the scarce supply, people with certain cancers or who have received organ transplants receive the highest priority.

Governor DeSantis announced the new preventative was available on December 17^th, when Covid was raging through Miami-Dade County. However, the first shipments went to a small private fee-based clinic in Broward County, not to a major medical center. People flew from out of state to receive it.

A spokesperson for the state claimed the iCare Clinic received priority because it was open on Christmas and New Year’s Day. Jackson Memorial, the hospital in Miami with the most transplant patients in FL, was to receive it four weeks later.

FDA: FDA Authorizes New Long-Acting Monoclonal Antibodies for Pre-Exposure Prevention of COVID-19 in Certain Individuals

Governor’s Office: Governor DeSantis Highlights New Preventative Monoclonal Antibody for Immunocompromised Patients

S t at: A Tiny Florida Company Got more of a Scarce Covid Therapy than Some Big Hospitals, Raising Equity Questions

Miami Herald: Florida Sent Scarce COVID-19 Therapy to a Private Broward Clinic before Jackson Memorial

Local 10: Jackson, UM Hospital to Receive Shipments of Monoclonal Antibody Doses for Immunodeficient Patients

Evusheld appears to remain effective against the omicron BA.2 subvariant. However, due to that subvariant, the FDA amended the EUA on February 24, 2022, to double the dosage of each component of Evusheld.

People who had already received it should contact their physicians about an additional shot. The FDA is now uncertain how long the immunity conferred by Evusheld will last.

Does Any Monoclonal Antibody Work Against BA.2?—Pre-print Lab Data Cast Doubt on the One Remaining Effective Antibody Treatment

FDA: FDA Authorizes Revisions to Evusheld Dosing

Public Health Emergency: State/Territory-Coordinated Weekly Distribution of COVID-19 Therapeutics

Florida Covid Testing:

On January 3, 2022, the Florida Surgeon General decried the “testing psychology” which seeks to identify all Covid cases to slow the rate of community transmission.

Amidst the scandal which erupted on January 7^th concerning the 1,000,000 expired antigen tests, Florida’s web site shifted its focus to testing. Specifically, that people who are not high-risk should avoid it.

On January 6^th, the governor announced the state is shipping 1,000,000 test kits to long-term care and nursing facilities:

T h e Hill: Florida Surgeon General Blasts “Testing Psychology” around COVID-19

Florida Covid-19 Response

The Hill: DeSantis Administration Says It Let a Million COVID-19 Tests Expire in Florida Warehouse

The Hill: Florida Sending 1 Million Free COVID-19 Tests to Elderly Communities

On February 7^th, the Florida Department of Health officially reprimanded two testing companies which failed to report the results of 230,000 Covid tests taken during December and January.

Tampa Bay Times: Florida Contractors Didn’t Report 230,000 COVID Tests on Time During Omicron Wave

Covid Hospitalizations in Florida:

You won’t find any hospitalization information on Florida’s Weekly Surveillance Reports. Florida stopped reporting Covid hospitalizations on June 24, 2021.

However, Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Florida reported a record 13,028 hospitalizations for Covid-19 on August 24, 2021, to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

Since the omicron variant became predominant, hospital officials are seeing more incidental Covid cases among people who are in the hospital. Roughly one-third are admitted for a primary diagnosis of Covid; one-third for a Covid infection making an underlying condition worse; and one-third for reasons unrelated to their viral infection.

WaPo: In the Nation’s Hospitals, this Covid Wave Is Different

MedPage: When COVID Pushes Other Conditions Past the “Tipping Point”—Is the Patient Hospitalized “for” COVID, “with” COVID, or Somewhere in Between?

Last fall, Florida had the highest adult hospitalization rate in the US. Until ten weeks ago, Florida had remained the second best (ending at 8.9/100,000) for seven weeks. Last week, Florida dropped 26^th to 28^th in rank among states. There was a 27% improvement in adults requiring hospital care (10.9/100,000 to 8.0/100,000):

Florida’s pediatric hospitalization rank dropped from 27^th to 30^th with a 32% decline (from 1.11/100,000 to 0.75/100,000):

Salemi USF: COVID-19 Currently Hospitalized in Florida

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

For August 1, 2020–March 10, 2022, Florida has had 407,865 new hospital admissions for Covid patients. This represents 8.9% of all Covid admissions in the US for 6.6% of the US population:

For March 4–10, 2022, there was an average of 218 admissions per day, a total of 1,523. Overall, there was a decrease of 32% from the previous week (2,243; 313/day) and 90% fewer compared to the peak during August 11–17, 2021, when there were 10.42 admissions/100,000 Floridians.

You can find more detailed hospitalization statistics on the same CDC COVID Data Tracker, choosing Florida as the Jurisdiction and stratifying by any age:

During March 4–10, 2022, hospitalizations declined for every adult age group, ranging from 18% for ages for ages 40–49 to 39% for ages 18–29. The amount of decrease did not correspond to decreasing age.

Only eight weeks earlier, hospitalizations had increased for every adult age group, ranging from 4% for ages 18–29 to 60% for people over 70.

Last week, pediatric admissions declined by 6%, compared to 51% two weeks ago. Children had experienced a 203% rise during the last week of December.

Compared to the delta variant wave we encountered in 2021, omicron admissions have been higher for people younger than 30 and older than 69.

On March 10^th, there were new admissions/100,000 Floridians; 1.46 the week before:

Age	Admissions	% Change
0–17	0.31	-6
18–29	0.33	-39
30–39	0.44	-23
40–49	0.53	-18
50–59	0.77	-35
60–69	1.41	-34
70+	3.02	-31
all ages	1.01	-44

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

March 3, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

After seven weeks of increases, the number of adults in the hospital started to decline seven weeks ago. On March 11^th, that number had fallen another 26% to 1,406. That is still 45% more than on December 3^rd (968).

New adult admissions have dropped by 33% to 194/day. The proportion of adults needing care in the ICU dropped slightly to 18%.

Pediatric hospitalizations are 30% lower than last week, with 32 children in Florida hospitals on March 11, 2022. There were 33 pediatric admissions/day, the same as a week ago and 65% higher than on December 3^rd (20). One in 7 admissions are for children, up from one in 10 on March 4^th:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida Hospital Admissions by Age

Jan 13, 2022 Florida Covid Stats: What Is Really Happening?

HHS tracks Hospital Utilization. On the morning of March 11, 2022, 79% of hospital beds in Florida were full, the same as last week. Covid patients accounted for 1,810 of them (3% of utilized beds, down from 4%).

A week earlier, there were 2,418 hospitalized Covid patients, so there were 25% fewer inpatients with Covid:

Four percent of ICU beds in use in Florida were used by 256 Covid patients, 30% fewer than the previous week (367). A week earlier, 6% of ICU beds were used by Covid patients.

Overall, 75% of ICU beds are occupied in the state, compared to 76% a week earlier: