Florida Statistics: What Is Really Happening, October 7, 2021

I have also published delta variant information and in-depth Covid-19 information.

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Florida is the only state in the US which is releasing statistics on a weekly, not daily, basis. Let’s look at these two charts from the Florida Department of Health.

Here is some of the data from October 1–7, 2021:

  • New cases = 25,792; Cumulative cases = 3,601,755
  • New deaths = 147; Cumulative deaths = 56,667
  • Vaccination rate = 72%
  • Fully vaccinated people = 11,339,967 (last week was listed as 11,370,030)
  • Roughly 600,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in August.

The vaccination rate of 72% represents only those who are eligible for vaccination and includes partially vaccinated people. Florida’s population is currently 21,975,117. That makes the actual full vaccination percentage = 51.6%, down from 51.7% last week.

Florida Covid-19 Weekly Situation Report: October 1–7

Note that archived data on influenza statistics is readily available on the FL Dept of Health web site: Florida Influenza Surveillance Reports 2003–2021

The chart for September 24–30, 2021 is from a screenshot because Florida is immediately removing all traces of older Covid data when the new data is put online:

  • New cases = 37,772; Cumulative cases = 3,576,571
  • New deaths = 233; Cumulative deaths = 55,299
  • Vaccination rate = 71%
  • Fully vaccinated people = 11,370,030
  • Roughly 600,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in August.

September 30, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

 Covid Deaths in Florida:

Despite making national news for the state government’s attempt to cover up the number of deaths, nothing has changed in the Florida Department of Health’s methodology.

The Hill: Florida Reported ‘Artificial Decline’ in COVID-19 Deaths as Cases Were Surging

Subtracting the October 7th new deaths from the cumulative deaths should give us the number of September 30th cumulative deaths. However, doing that reveals 1,221 deaths which were not included in the October 7th data. There was a total of 1,368 deaths reported in Florida during that week. Yet only 10.7% of deaths (147) are reflected clearly on the October 7th report. This is a 26% decrease from last week (1,719).

Florida Covid-19 Weekly Situation Report: October 1–7

September 30, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

When the state receives a report of a death from a previous week, that information is added to “Cumulative Deaths” without being noted in “Previous Week Deaths.” It usually takes more than one week for death reports to get sent to the state. 

Unless someone knows to compare the two data sets from both weeks, that is not apparent. By removing data from September 23rd and adding data from September 30th simultaneously, only people who have saved the older data can see what they are doing. It looks like the death rate is 86% better than it is.

Florida Politics: Florida Reports 1000+ Covid-19 Deaths in Past Week

On June 4th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 744 deaths:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

Since August 1st, 15,926 permanent residents of Florida have died from Covid-19. All FL residents at least sixteen years old became eligible for vaccination on April 1st. SARS-CoV-2 infections have killed 22,191 permanent residents of the state since that date. Despite having only 6.6% of the US population, this represents 15% of all American Covid-19 deaths during that time.

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

A comparison of Covid deaths in the six largest US states reveals that Florida had the highest proportion of deaths during April 1, 2021–September 29, 2021, when all Americans over the age of 16 were eligible for vaccination:

Tampa Bay Times: Fatal Flaws: Why Does Florida have So Many More COVID Deaths than Other Large States?

Covid Cases in Florida:

On the October 7th report, Florida reported 3,601,755 cumulative cases. Of those, 25,792 were new, a 32% improvement from the prior week (37,772). Subtracting the new number from the cumulative one should give us the cumulative number from the previous week: 3,575,963.

However, the September 30th report shows a cumulative number of 3,576,571, an over-reporting of 608 cases (2.4%). Why that difference exists remains unclear.

Florida Covid-19 Weekly Situation Report: October 1–7

September 30, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

On June 4th, the state removed all data from anyone who is not a permanent resident and stopped reporting it. This deleted 43,535 cases.

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

The state is now reporting the number of cases in children under twelve:

Florida Covid-19 Weekly Situation Report: October 1–7

A professor from the University of South Florida has been compiling data from the state since May 28th. Here is what he has posted about pediatric cases since then until October 1st. I have omitted the earlier weeks to fit the data into one screenshot:

During the week of September 24–October 1, 4,140 children under twelve tested positive in Florida, a decrease of 28% over the previous week. Among those 12–19, 2,580 2,580 tested positive, a decrease of 37%. In total, 6,270 Florida residents under the age of twenty tested positive.     

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

In the Hillsborough County School District, 2% of the 11,326 cases have occurred in the past week. Five weeks ago, the rate of increase was 87%. The school year began on August 10th, and the district instituted a mandatory mask mandate on August 18th.

My daughters’ high school has had 70 cases, with none in the past three weeks. During August 28th–September 2nd, the increase from the prior week was 87%. Our elementary school has had 59 cases, the same number as the previous week. That dropped from a 5% rate of increase.

Hillsborough County Public Schools Covid Dashboard

Look at the difference in ease of use between the Dept of Health’s county positivity rates:

Florida Covid-19 Weekly Situation Report: October 1–7

and Jason Salemi’s:

You can click on the maps for detailed information on each county. He also lists the data for each week since May 28, 2021, when Florida deleted its daily dashboard.  

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Covid Hospitalizations in Florida:

You won’t find any hospitalization information on Florida’s Weekly Surveillance Reports. Florida stopped reporting Covid hospitalization June 24, 2021. However, Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Florida reported a record 13,028 hospitalizations for Covid-19 on August 24, 2021 to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

Five weeks ago, Florida had the highest adult hospitalization rate in the US. Over the past week, Florida improved from the twenty-second worst hospitalization rate for adults in the nation to thirty-first worst on October 8th (from 27.8 to 18.4/100,000).

Florida dropped from fourteenth worst for children to the twenty-first two weeks ago (2.55 to 2.03/100,000). After steadily declining, over the past month, Florida’s pediatric hospitalization rate climbed to tenth worst in the nation on October 8th (3.1/100,000).

This coincides with changes in the school masking and quarantine policies enacted on September 22, 2021, by the new FL Surgeon General. This makes it harder for counties to enforce mandatory mask wearing and allows the parents of children exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to determine whether their children should quarantine or return to school.

Salemi USF: COVID-19 Currently Hospitalized in Florida

You can also find statistics on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, choosing Florida as the Jurisdiction and stratifying by any age:

For August 1, 2020–September 30, 2021, Florida had 304,320 new admissions for Covid patients. This represents 9.8% of all Covid hospitalizations in the US for 6.6% of the US population. The daily average over the past seven days was 479 new admissions (a decrease of 44% in the past week and of 79% from the peak during August 11–17, when there were 10.42 admissions/100,000 Floridians). Every age group declined.

On October 7th, there were 2.33 new admissions/100,000 Floridians:

AgeAdmissions
0–170.48
18–290.93
30–391.59
40–491.91
50–592.53
60–693.12
70+4.84
all ages2.23
  

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

The number of people in the hospital is now steadily dropping. However, the percentage of children has risen as the delta wave has progressed:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida Hospital Admissions by Age

HHS tracks Hospital Utilization. Searching by facility does not include the number of Covid-19 patients. However, after scrolling down to Inpatient Bed Utilization by State, you can choose Florida. On October 9th, 2021, 79% of hospital beds in Florida were full, the same as last week. The 3,945 Covid patients accounted for 7% of utilized beds, an improvement of 2%.

Seventeen percent of ICU beds in use in Florida are occupied by 1,081 Covid patients. That is down from 21% the previous week. State-wide, 80% of ICU beds are occupied, down 2%:

HHS: Inpatient Bed Utilization by State

Many hospitals are publishing their own occupancy statistics. For example, Tampa General Hospital released this on October 2nd:

  • There were 33 Covid-19 admissions, down from 60 one week before
  • 13 Covid patients were in their ICU, down from 23 one week before

Tampa General : Hospital Bed Availability for COVID-19 Patients

In Florida, the number of deaths, cases, and hospitalizations due to Covid-19 are all declining significantly. There has been an increase in the percentage of children among new hospital admissions in the past week, following changes ordered in school policies state-wide.

Throughout the course of the pandemic, 10% of all hospitalizations in the US have been within the state. Between April 1st and October 7th of this year, 15% of all Covid-19 deaths have occurred in Florida, a state with 6.6% of the population.

Why the state is reporting fewer total immunizations than last week and over-counting by 2% of cases compared to last week remains a mystery.

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Archived posts on Florida Covid statistics are available here:

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?