Florida Statistics: What Is Really Happening, December 2, 2021

I have also published delta variant information and in-depth Covid-19 information.

To download this as a pdf, click here.

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Since the pandemic began, 1% of all permanent Florida residents at least 65 years old have died due to Covid-19. After a 16% increase last week, the number of reported deaths has decreased in Florida by 64%. Twenty-seven deaths were reported to the CDC last week from my county alone. However, the state is claiming only 23% of Covid-19 deaths reported for permanent residents of Florida during the past week as “New Deaths” (35 of 153). This is twice as accurate as normal.

This week, the state is under-reporting 229 cases, 2.1% of the total. There were really 11,121 new cases among permanent residents in Florida, an increase of 6.6%. The state is claiming a 69% vaccination rate; at last count, 57% of all permanent Florida residents have at least completed a vaccine series.

Throughout the course of the pandemic, 9% of all hospitalizations in the US have been within Florida. After declining for several months, the state had a concerning 7% rise in hospital admissions. The greatest jump was for those aged 60–69. Changes in the school masking and quarantine policies enacted by the new FL Surgeon General on September 22, 2021, may account for the discrepancy in adult vs. pediatric hospitalization rankings.

Between April 1st and December 2nd of this year—when vaccinations were available to all Floridians over the age of 16—12.1% of all Covid-19 deaths have occurred in Florida, a state with 6.6% of the population. Since the state began withholding information on June 5, 2021, Florida has one of the worst Covid death rates in the nation.

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Florida is the only state in the US which is releasing statistics on a weekly, not daily, basis. Information available in those reports is far more limited than what the state formerly provided.

Since October 14, 2021, I made many attempts to access the FL Dept of Health Weekly Report and my browser will not download it due to a potential security risk. Note the omicron news:

Florida Covid-19 Response

TBT: Why Doesnt Florida Trust Its Residents with Basic COVID Information?

On October 18th, I followed the Dept of Health’s recommendation to contact their COVID Data Analytics section, then went outside. When I returned, I had to do a major recovery process following an unauthorized attempt to access my hard drive. I still have not received a response from the FL COVID Data Analytics group. Even the main site for the Florida Dept of Health appears on an unsecure connection: www.floridahealth.gov. I’m now accessing the pdf for the weekly summary via Dr. Jason Salemi’s site:

Here is some of the data from November 26–December 2, 2021:

  • New cases = 10,892; Cumulative cases = 3,697,523
  • New deaths = 35; Cumulative deaths = 61,701
  • Vaccination rate = 69%
  • Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 9,568,305
  • Total booster doses: 2,957,193

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

The vaccination rate reported by the state remained at 69%. This figure represents only those eligible for vaccination and includes partially vaccinated people. Florida’s population is currently 21,975,117, so 57% have at least completed a vaccination series. People who receive a booster shot are removed from the Series Completed Category and added to the Additional Dose Category.

Note that archived data on influenza statistics is readily available on the FL Dept of Health web site: Florida Influenza Surveillance Reports 2003–2021

This data from November 19–25, 2021, came from Dr. Salemi’s archives. Since October 14th, my browser will not download the FL Dept of Health Weekly Report, citing it as a security risk. Nevertheless, you would not find any archived Covid information on the FL Dept of Health site:

  • New cases = 9,663; Cumulative cases = 3,686,860
  • New deaths = 44; Cumulative deaths = 61,548
  • Vaccination rate = 69%
  • Fully vaccinated people minus those with booster shots = 9,732,674
  • Total booster doses: 2,730,606

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

November 25, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

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Covid Deaths in Florida:

Despite making national news for the state government’s attempt to cover up the number of deaths, nothing has changed in the Florida Department of Health’s methodology.

The Hill: Florida Reported ‘Artificial Decline’ in COVID-19 Deaths as Cases Were Surging

Subtracting the December 2nd New Deaths from the Cumulative Deaths should give us the number of November 25th Cumulative Deaths. However, doing that reveals 118 deaths which were not included in the November 25th New Deaths. There was a total of 153 deaths reported in Florida during that week. Yet only 23% of deaths (35) are reflected clearly on the December 2nd h report. Since I began analyzing statewide data in August, this is by far the most accurate count. It is also a 64% decrease from last week (423).

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

November 11, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

When the state receives a report of a death from a previous week, that information is added to “Cumulative Deaths” without being noted in “Previous Week Deaths.” It usually takes more than one week for death reports to get sent to the state. 

Unless someone knows to compare the two data sets from both weeks, that is not apparent. By removing data from November 25th and adding data from December 2nd simultaneously, only people who have saved the older data can see what they are doing. It looks like the death rate is 77% better than it is.

Florida Politics: Florida Reports 1000+ Covid-19 Deaths in Past Week

During November 28–December 2, 2021, Hillsborough County alone had 27 deaths reported to the CDC:

CDC: Integrated County View, Hillsborough FL

On June 4th, the state removed all data from anyone who has not established permanent residency and stopped reporting information from visitors, seasonal residents, and migrant workers. This deleted 744 deaths. I can no longer access this file, as my browser deems it a security risk:

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

Over the course of the pandemic, Florida has one of the worst death rates in the nation (287/100,000 people):

CDC: United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing by State and Territory

Since August 1st, 21,223 permanent residents of Florida have died from Covid-19. All FL residents at least sixteen years old became eligible for vaccination on April 1st. SARS-CoV-2 infections have killed 27,400 permanent residents of the state since that date to December 2nd. Despite having only 6.6% of the US population, this represents 12.1% of all American Covid-19 deaths since everyone at least 16 years old qualified for vaccination.

Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State

Since the pandemic began, 1% of all permanent Florida residents at least 65 years old have died due to Covid-19 (1004.0/100,000):

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

The CDC recently updated their algorithm for calculating excess deaths in the US to include six years of data, rather than four, due to the pandemic skewing the expected numbers. Here is that information for Florida. You can click on each bar on their site to see the data for that week. It takes up to eight weeks for complete reporting:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

A comparison of Covid deaths in the six largest US states by September 29th reveals that Florida had the highest proportion when all Americans at least 16 years old were eligible for vaccination:

Tampa Bay Times: Fatal Flaws: Why Does Florida have So Many More COVID Deaths than Other Large States?

The high proportion of excess Covid deaths in FL has not changed much since that analysis. This is the total number of excess deaths, not the number per 100,000 people:

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 by Jurisdiction/Cause

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Covid Cases in Florida:

On the December 2nd report, Florida reported 3,697,523 cumulative cases. Of those, 10,892 were reported as new, a 12.7% increase from the prior week (9,663). Subtracting the new number from the cumulative one should give us the cumulative number from the prior week: 3,686,631.

However, the December 2nd report shows a cumulative number of 3,686,860. This week, the state is under-reporting 229 cases, 2.1% of the total. There were really 11,121 new cases among permanent residents in Florida, a decline of 3.6%.

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

November 18, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

On June 4th, the state removed all data from anyone who is not a permanent resident and stopped reporting it. This deleted 43,535 cases.

FL Covid-19 Cases and Monitoring as of June 3, 2021

During the week of November 19–25, 1,137 children under twelve tested positive in Florida, an increase of 13% over the previous week (1,005). Among those 12–19, 811 tested positive, an increase of 35% from the prior week (599). In total, 1,948 Florida residents under the age of twenty tested positive, an increase of 21%. The CDC recommended vaccination for children aged 5–11 on November 2nd. Currently, they have the highest positivity rate in Florida.

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

November 18, 2021 Florida Statistics: What is Really Happening?

In the Hillsborough County School District, there have been 11,942 cases during this school year as of December 2nd. Only 63 cases were reported during November 29–December 2, 0.5% of the cases during this academic year. Ten weeks ago, the rate of increase was 87%. The school year began on August 10th, and the district instituted a mandatory mask mandate on August 18th. They ended it on October 15th.

HCSD: Covid FrequentlyAsked Questions

My daughters’ high school has had 70 cases, with none in the past eleven weeks. During August 28th–September 2nd, the increase from the prior week was 87%. Our elementary school has had 63 cases, an increase of 3 in the last week.

Hillsborough County Public Schools Covid Dashboard

Here are a few of the FL Dept of Health county positivity rates. Hillsborough County has kept a positivity rate of 3.2%. The state average was 2.5%:

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

Dr. Jason Salemi, a professor from the University of South Florida, has been compiling data from the state since May 28th. His county-level data are quite helpful. Note that this runs one week late. It indicates that Hillsborough County has remained at 3.2% on November 19–25:

You can click on the maps for detailed information on each county. He also lists the data for each week since May 28, 2021, when Florida deleted its daily dashboard.  

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida

The CDC notes 7,22 new cases in Hillsborough County in the week prior to December 3rd:

That represents a decrease of 4%, with a moderate level of transmission:

CDC: COVID-19 Integrated County View, Hillsborough County FL

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Covid Hospitalizations in Florida:

You won’t find any hospitalization information on Florida’s Weekly Surveillance Reports. Florida stopped reporting Covid hospitalizations on June 24, 2021. However, Florida must relay all hospitalization data to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Florida reported a record 13,028 hospitalizations for Covid-19 on August 24, 2021, to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

Eleven weeks ago, Florida had the highest adult hospitalization rate in the US. Over the past three weeks, Florida has remained the second best (from 5.8 to 5.5/100,000):

Florida’s pediatric hospitalization rate dropped from 39th worst on November 30th to 43rd on December 6th (staying at 0.38/100,000):

Changes in the school masking and quarantine policies enacted by the new FL Surgeon General on September 22, 2021, may account for the discrepancy in adult vs. pediatric hospitalization rankings. This makes it harder for counties to enforce mandatory mask wearing and allows the parents of children exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to determine whether their children should quarantine or return to school.

Salemi USF: COVID-19 Currently Hospitalized in Florida

TBT 9-30-21: Florida’s School Mask, Quarantine Rules Draw More Criticism

For August 1, 2020–December 2, 2021, Florida had 317,517 new admissions for Covid patients. This represents 9.2% of all Covid admissions in the US for 6.6% of the US population.

You can also find hospitalization statistics on the same CDC COVID Data Tracker, choosing Florida as the Jurisdiction and stratifying by any age:

The daily average during November 26–December 5, 2021 was 179 new admissions. This represents an increase of 7% in the past week (from 167) and a decrease of 92% from the peak during August 11–17, when there were 10.42 admissions/100,000 Floridians. In general, hospitalizations decreased by several percentage points for people younger than 40 and increased for people older than that. The greatest jump was for those aged 60–69, from 0.98 to 1.17.

On December 2nd, there were 0.79 new admissions/100,000 Floridians; 0.77 the week before:

AgeAdmissions
0–170.14
18–290.32
30–390.61
40–490.66
50–59   0.92
60–691.17
70+1.78
all ages0.79
  
  


COVID Data Tracker: New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 per 100,000 Population by Age Group

The number of people in the hospital was steadily dropping until this week. However, the number of adult admissions has risen by 7%. One-fourth of hospitalized adults are in the ICU (27%):

Salemi USF: COVID-19 in Florida Hospital Admissions by Age

HHS tracks Hospital Utilization. On December 2, 2021, 79% of hospital beds in Florida were full, up 7% from last week. The 1,343 Covid patients accounted for 2% of utilized beds. However, last week, there were 1,272 hospitalized Covid patients, an increase of 6%. Four weeks ago, hospitalizations dropped 35%.

Four percent of ICU beds in use in Florida were occupied by 256 Covid patients. That is one less than the previous week (255). Two weeks ago, the drop was 18%:

HHS: Inpatient Bed Utilization by State

Many hospitals are publishing their own occupancy statistics. For example, Tampa General Hospital released this on December 2nd:

  • There were 10 Covid-19 admissions, down from 15 ten days before
  • Five Covid patients were in their ICU, one more than a week before

Tampa General : Hospital Bed Availability for COVID-19 Patients

Archived posts on Florida Covid statistics are available here:

Florida Covid Statistics: What is Really Happening?